The wet season pulses around the equator, and that takes around 30 to 60 days to do so. The pulse is detected as the most cloudy location around the equator, combined with a shift South of the monsoon trough between 5 to 15 degrees latitude of the equator. Thus making conditions ideal for heavy rain as the warm humid air pools down from the equator into the trough and creates extreme instability and uplift turning into storms and sometimes cyclones.
The first weak pulse has just shown up North of QLD, and we can see that by the storms and rain across the top end, plus the chart that tracks this pulse the MJO.
We track this pulse in the Long Range forecast that is updated each month, and we also forecast the next 2 to 3 pulses for the wet season and pick the one that is likely to impact on the NQ region the most, which at this stage should be February mid to late. For more details click here.
"Madden–Julian Oscillation to move into the Western Pacific
A moderate Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) pulse strengthened and moved across the Maritime Continent during the past week, and is currently located in the eastern Maritime Continent.
Climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that the MJO will remain moderate to strong and move eastward over the Western Pacific region in the coming week. This pulse is likely to remain over the Western Pacific region until early November.
At this time of the year, an active MJO in the Western Pacific typically increases cloudiness and rainfall in the parts of northern Australia, and parts of South East Asia.
The current MJO pulse is particularly strong and in its current and forecast location may generate anomalous westerly winds across the tropical Pacific Ocean which could stall development towards La Niña conditions in 2024." - BOM http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/tropical-note/
"Pulse crops are to reap the benefits of recent rains in South Australia (SA) and Victoria, reports Grain Central this week. Speaking to the ag news outlet, Agronomist Phil Holmes explained that pods for SA peas, beans, and lupins were "looking quite full" and that "pulses will be the thing to bring a smile to people's faces," after the rains
"Storms, showers and cool weather" have slowed down the harvest in northern New South Wales and Queensland this week, according to UkrAgroConsult. Storms in Victoria's Wimmera district may have damaged some crops, but later crops in the area have seen "yield-preserving rain"
Over the next eight days, rainfall between 5-50 mm is projected in Queensland in north-eastern New South Wales, which ABARES predicts may result in delays to winter crop harvesting" POD https://pulsepod.globalpulses.com/pod-feed/post/weather-update
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