The monsoon pulse is when we see a large gathering of cloud near the equator, and it is from this that the monsoon trough emerges and may produce tropical storms to cyclones. We track it via the MJO chart.
The chart is divided into 8 triangles, with a circle in the middle. The circle means the trough is essentially close to the equator, so it is weak. The triangles are numbered and referred to as a phase. Phase 5 is roughly the western region, or Indian Ocean, 6 is the northern and is essentially the Arafura Sea and Gulf. 7 is roughly the Coral Sea. That's not precise but it helps to give you an idea.
It takes around 30 to 60 days for the MJO to move anti clockwise around the phases. It's roughly a week or less per phase. This enables us to estimate when the next monsoon pulse or possible cyclones will be. I also combine the the SOI which I will explain in another blog. Plus sometimes there is a pattern, such as now, there is a shorter than normal cycle, and it seems to be skipping phase 2,3 and 4. And it also seems to be mainly strong in 7, but further away from Australia.
We will begin to see a few models like the following over the next 2 weeks.
This will be documented into the Long Range forecast available to Big Shout members.
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