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Monsoon Update
09U about 35 kilometers southeast of Gove Airport, Australia. Satellite images show ongoing thunderstorms to the west of a visible low-pressure center, with strong winds pushing in that direction. Radar data from Gove Airport reveals strong storm bands moving towards the low-pressure center. Surface observations from Gove Airport indicate sustained west-northwesterly winds, a drop in pressure, and warm sea temperatures, all suggesting further development. Predictive models suggest it will move southeast to south over the next day, likely intensifying rapidly, with estimated winds of 55 to 65 kilometers per hour and a minimum pressure around 995 hectopascals. There's a high chance of it becoming a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours.
08U about 504 kilometers north of Learmonth, Australia, with sustained winds of around 65 kilometers per hour. In the past 6 hours, it has been moving slowly towards the west-southwest at a speed of about 7 kilometers per hour. Satellite images show it slowly getting stronger, with thunderstorms close to the center. However, the center is partly visible between two stormy areas, one to the east and one to the west. There is some wind moving away from the center, but overall, the storm is slowly getting stronger. The location of the storm is determined with medium confidence, and its strength is estimated to be around 60-65 kilometers per hour based on different analysis
Lots of variation in the models after 24 hours, but the general consensus is that 09U won't head far enough SE to bring much rain to Townsville and the Burdekin, however, Tuesday next week might be the heaviest. The FNQ coast should still see some rain. Most of the heavy rain will be around the West and Southern side of the Gulf.
08U looks to be turning away from the WA coast after potentially becoming a category one system.
National
Strong monsoon systems will cause heavy rain, storms, and strong winds in the tropics. Showers and storms may spread across parts of Queensland and New South Wales as the air becomes more humid and unstable. Some areas in South Australia, northwest Victoria, and Western Australia might also experience isolated showers and storms due to less instability in the air.
Synoptic | Temp/Rain | Wind | Sea Surface Temp
State
Monsoon trough bringing rain to northern Queensland, tropical low to move southward over Gulf coast with possible further development, showery winds along east coast will push moisture inland, weak trough expected in southern Queensland next week.
ACCESS (Values are rainfall over 3 hours)
4-day
Saturday: Isolated to scattered showers north of Georgetown. Showers widespread with heavy falls over Cape York Peninsula. Isolated showers in southern districts, becoming scattered on central and southeast coasts. Mostly clear elsewhere. Light to moderate east to southeasterly winds. Fresh at times on the east coast south of Mackay. Fresh west to northwesterly winds in Torres Strait and northern Peninsula. Strong winds at times on the west Peninsula coast.
Sunday: Chance of showers and thunderstorms in northern Queensland. Rain possible in Cape York Peninsula and Gulf Coast. Heavy rainfall and strong winds possible. Isolated showers in the east, sunny elsewhere. Strong winds in Gulf of Carpentaria. Above-average temperatures in western and southern interior.
Monday: Patchy showers and storms in northern and Far North Queensland, increasing to widespread rain in some areas. Potential for heavy rainfall, strong winds, and thunderstorms in specific regions. Winds may be gusty, especially along the Gulf of Carpentaria coast. Temperature variations across different parts of the region.
Tuesday: Some showers in the north and east, heavy rain possible in some areas. Chance of a thunderstorm near Hughenden. Partly cloudy in most places. Temperature varies across regions.
North Tropical Coast and Tablelands:
Max temperature: 32°C, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: 15 to 25 km/h, Wind direction: easterly, Rainfall: high chance of showers, Other: Partly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms.
Herbert and Lower Burdekin:
Max temperature around 30 degrees, min temperature in the low to mid 20s, light winds becoming easterly 20-30 km/h, medium chance of showers with 'Partly cloudy' conditions.
Central Coast and Whitsundays:
Max temperature of 33°C, min temperature in the low to mid 20s, wind speeds of 25 to 35 km/h from the east to southeasterly direction, with a chance of showers and partially cloudy weather.
Peninsula:
Max temperature: low 30s, Min temperature: mid 20s, Wind speed: 15 to 25 km/h, Wind direction: east to northeasterly, Rainfall: very high chance of rain, Other: Cloudy with chance of thunderstorm.
Gulf Country:
Max temperature: 37°C, Min temperature: mid to high 20s, Wind speed: 20 to 30 km/h, Wind direction: East to northeasterly, Rainfall: High chance in the north, medium elsewhere, Other: Partly cloudy, chance of a thunderstorm, heavy falls near the coast.
Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders:
The weather forecast includes a maximum temperature of 37°C, minimum temperature in the low to mid 20s, northeasterly winds turning easterly at 15 to 30 km/h, medium chance of showers in the east, slight chance elsewhere, and a chance of thunderstorms in the north.
Capricornia:
Maximum temperature of around 30 degrees with overnight temperatures falling to between 19 and 23, accompanied by east to southeasterly winds at 25 to 35 km/h and a slight chance of a shower near the coast, with a near-zero chance elsewhere.
Central Highlands and Coalfields:
The weather will be partly cloudy with easterly winds of 20 to 30 km/h, overnight temperatures between 19 and 22°C, daytime temperatures reaching the low to mid 30s, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, wind speed, wind direction, rainfall - not specified.
Central West:
The weather forecast includes hot temperatures reaching the mid to high 30s, with overnight temperatures dropping to 21 to 26, and winds picking up from east to northeasterly at 15 to 25 km/h becoming easterly at 25 to 35 km/h in the morning, alongside sunny conditions and no mention of rainfall.
North West:
The maximum temperature will reach the mid to high 30s with light winds becoming northeasterly 20 to 30 km/h in the morning, a slight chance of a shower north of Mt Isa in the late morning, and near zero chance of rain elsewhere, before winds tend easterly 15 to 25 km/h in the middle of the day leading to overnight temperatures falling to the mid 20s.
Channel Country:
Max temperature around 40°C, min temperature in the low to high 20s, wind speed increasing from east to northeasterly at 25-35 km/h, mostly sunny with a chance of rain, and overnight temperatures falling to the low to high 20s.
Maranoa and Warrego:
Max temperature: 38°C, Min temperature: 19°C, Wind speed: 25-35 km/h (east to northeasterly), Wind direction: East to northeasterly, Rainfall: Near zero chance, Other: Partly cloudy with slight chance of showers near NSW border in late morning and thunderstorms in the south later.
Darling Downs and Granite Belt:
Max temperature: 32°C, Min temperature: 16°C, Wind speed: 20-30 km/h easterly, Wind direction: Easterly, Rainfall: None, Conditions: Partly cloudy.
Wide Bay and Burnett:
The weather forecast includes a maximum temperature of around 30°C, minimum temperatures falling to between 17 and 21°C, southeasterly winds at 25 to 35 km/h, medium chance of showers along the coastal fringe and slight chance elsewhere, with overnight temperatures dropping and partly cloudy conditions.
Southeast Coast:
Today, the weather will have max temperatures in the mid to high 20s, min temperatures between 17 and 21, southeasterly winds at 25-35 km/h with a chance of showers and partly cloudy conditions.
WEATHER WARNINGS
Severe thunderstorm warning issued for parts of Daly, Arnhem, Carpentaria, and Gregory districts in the Northern Territory.
Wind warning canceled for Port Phillip & West Coast in Victoria.
Strong wind warning for Byron and Coffs coasts in New South Wales, with a cancellation for Macquarie Coast.
Tropical cyclone advice and forecast track maps provided for the Northern Territory.
Fire weather warning issued for Ashburton Coast in Western Australia.
Severe weather warning for damaging winds and heavy rainfall in parts of Arnhem district in the Northern Territory.
Tropical cyclone technical bulletins and ocean wind warnings issued for tropical cyclones in Western Australia and the Northern Territory.
Gale warning for North East Gulf of Carpentaria and Arafura, Gove Peninsula, and Roper Groote coasts.
Gale warnings issued for various coastal areas in New South Wales.
Hazardous surf warning issued for Sunday for multiple coastal areas in New South Wales.
Strong wind warning for Central, South Central, and Lower South East coasts in South Australia.
Flood watch issued for the West Kimberley region in Western Australia and parts of the Top End and Barkly of NT.
Minor flood warnings issued for various rivers in Queensland, Western Australia, and the Northern Territory.
Moderate flood warning issued for Eyre Creek and minor flood warning for the Georgina River in Queensland.
Flood warning issued for the Victoria River in the Northern Territory.
Moderate flood warning issued for the Daly River in the Northern Territory.
Flood warnings issued for the Eucla District and Salt Lakes District Rivers in Western Australia.
Flood watch issued for the Cape York Peninsula, North Tropical Coast, and parts of the Gulf Country in Queensland.
Minor flood warning issued for the Paroo River in New South Wales and Queensland.
Flood warning issued for the Inland Rivers in South Australia.
Storms - Heatwave - Fire danger
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National maps by Weatherzone (weatherzone.com.au)
State maps by Windy (Windy.com)
Weather forecast supplemented by Bureau of Meteorology (bom.gov.au)
Rainfall daily totals (https://meteologix.com/ )
AccuWeather (https://www.accuweather.com/)
Nine Weather (https://www.9news.com.au/weather)
Wally's Weather provides professionally researched data and information. Andrew aka 'Wally' has over 20 years of experience in meteorology research and data analysis. In 2023 finished top 4 for the AMOS national weather forecasting competition. The content here is provided as educational information aimed at providing the community and businesses with the tools required to determine local-based forecasts. IMPORTANT: The forecasts and information posted should never be used on their own to make business decisions as local influences.
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