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Monsoon Update
A tropical cyclone 08U is likely to form off the Pilbara coast by Sunday. High chance of a tropical cyclone for the Gulf of Carpentaria by Sunday with Tropical Low 09U moving east towards the Top End coast. Very Low chance of a tropical cyclone in the Coral Sea as Tropical Low 10U moves rapidly east-southeast away from the coast. No further updates will be issued for Tropical Low 10U as it is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone.
The monsoon trough to extend into the Coral Sea by the 22nd and possibly form a new low or at least some rain for North of Townsville. That should then take the rain off shore if a low forms. Still rain by then in the Gulf as the monsoon trough crosses into the Gulf.
National
The rainy season and low-pressure areas will cause rain, storms, and strong winds in the northern tropical regions, while the rain and storms in the southern inland of Western Australia and the eastern parts of Queensland will slowly decrease as high-pressure systems move closer. Additionally, there will be scattered light rain in South Australia and Victoria, along with rain and storms in eastern New South Wales due to cooler, unstable, moist air.
Synoptic | Temp/Rain | Wind | Sea Surface Temp
State
A high-pressure system in the Tasman Sea is creating a ridge over Tasmania, while a trough in the Coral Sea links to a low-pressure area off central Queensland, with the monsoon trough extending from the Arafura Sea across northern Cape York Peninsula, potentially shifting southward over the weekend and enhancing rainfall in northern Queensland, as a tropical low in the Top End might move into the Gulf of Carpentaria and strengthen, while a new high-pressure system from the Great Australian Bight brings southeasterly winds, increasing showers and pushing moisture inland in southeastern Queensland.
ACCESS (Values are rainfall over 3 hours)
4-day
Friday: Patchy showers and possible thunderstorms north of Kowanyama. Showers widespread with heavy falls in far northern Cape York Peninsula. Few showers along east coast south of Bowen. Clear elsewhere. Light to moderate east-southeasterly winds, fresh near east coastal fringe Bowen to Bundaberg. Moderate west-northwesterly winds in Torres Strait and far northern Peninsula.
Saturday: Mainly sunny in central and southwestern areas, isolated showers elsewhere. Thunderstorms possible in the north and far south. Showers may become widespread with heavy rain in some areas. Strong winds on the Gulf of Carpentaria coast. Above-average temperatures in western and southern parts of the state, near average elsewhere.
Sunday: Mainly sunny central and southwest. Showers scattered, possible thunder north of Hughenden and south interior. Rain possible with thunderstorms in some areas, especially in the north. Strong winds in the Gulf of Carpentaria. Temperatures above average in west and south, below average in Gulf Country.
Monday: Mainly sunny in the southwest and central interior, showers around with possible thunderstorms in certain locations, heavy rainfall potential in the north and northeast due to tropical system. Winds strong in Gulf of Carpentaria, temperatures above average in southwest and southern interior.
North Tropical Coast and Tablelands:
The maximum temperature will reach the low to mid 30s with overnight temperatures dropping to between 19 and 23, light winds becoming east to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h, partly cloudy with a medium chance of showers in the north and a slight chance elsewhere, and the possibility of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.
Herbert and Lower Burdekin:
Mostly sunny with rain likely in the afternoon and evening, light winds, temperatures ranging from low to mid 20s overnight to low to mid 30s during the day.
Central Coast and Whitsundays:
Max temperature: 30-35°C, Min temperature: low 20s, Wind speed: 15-25 km/h, Wind direction: east to southeasterly, Rainfall: Medium chance of showers, Other: Partly cloudy with winds strengthening.
Peninsula:
High: 35°C, Low: 20°C, Wind: North to northeasterly 15-20 km/h, Rain: Very high chance with thunderstorms possible, Cloudy.
Gulf Country:
Max temperature: mid to high 30s, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: light becoming 15 to 20 km/h, Wind direction: east to northeasterly, Rainfall: showers in the north, Mostly sunny with slight chance of rain.
Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders:
The weather forecast includes maximum temperatures in the mid to high 30s, minimum temperatures in the low to mid 20s, light winds becoming easterly 15 to 20 km/h, a slight chance of a shower in the southeast, near-zero chance elsewhere, and partly cloudy skies.
Capricornia:
Maximum temperature: 30-35°C, Minimum temperature: Low 20s, Wind speed: Southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h, Wind direction: East to southeasterly, Rainfall: Near zero chance of rain, Other: Partly cloudy with medium chance of showers in the north.
Central Highlands and Coalfields:
The weather forecast includes mostly sunny conditions with a slight chance of a shower in the northeast in the afternoon and evening, near zero chance of rain elsewhere, light winds becoming southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the morning then tending easterly in the late afternoon, with maximum temperature in the low to mid 30s, overnight temperatures falling to between 18 and 23.
Central West:
The weather will be mostly sunny with light winds becoming easterly 15 to 25 km/h in the morning, then becoming light in the evening; with overnight temperatures falling to the low 20s and daytime temperatures reaching the mid to high 30s, accompanied by no rainfall.
North West:
A very hot day with temperatures ranging from low 20s to around 40, light winds shifting from easterly to becoming light, and no rainfall expected with sunny conditions prevailing.
Channel Country:
Max temperature: around 40, Min temperature: low 20s, Wind speed: 15 to 25 km/h, Wind direction: east to southeasterly, Rainfall: None, Other: Sunny.
Maranoa and Warrego:
The weather for the day will be hot with a maximum temperature around 40 degrees, light winds becoming east to southeasterly at 15 to 25 km/h midday, overnight temperatures ranging between 18 and 22, and a sunny day with no rainfall expected.
Darling Downs and Granite Belt:
The weather forecast includes daytime temperatures ranging from 31 to 38 degrees Celsius, overnight temperatures between 16 and 19 degrees Celsius, light winds becoming east to southeasterly at 20 to 30 km/h, mostly sunny conditions with a chance of fog in the east early in the morning, and a slight chance of showers over the Granite Belt from late morning.
Wide Bay and Burnett:
Maximum temperature around 30, minimum temperature between 16 and 22, light winds becoming southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h, near zero chance of rain, mostly sunny with a chance of fog in the south in the early morning and medium chance of showers along the coastal fringe, most likely in the morning.
Southeast Coast:
Max temperature: 30°C, Min temperature: 16-20°C, Wind: Light becoming southeasterly 15-25 km/h, Rainfall: Medium chance of showers in southern border ranges, slight chance elsewhere, Other: Partly cloudy with fog possible in early morning, mainly inland.
WEATHER WARNINGS
A Flood Watch is in effect for the Kimberley, Sturt Creek, Sandy Desert, and parts of the Pilbara in Western Australia.
A Severe Thunderstorm Warning for heavy rainfall is issued for parts of Gascoyne and the South Interior districts in Western Australia.
A Strong Wind Warning is issued for the Geraldton and Leeuwin coasts in Western Australia.
A Gale Warning is issued for the North Tiwi and Arafura coasts, with a Strong Wind Warning for the Van Diemen Gulf, Beagle Bonaparte, and Gove Peninsula coasts in the Northern Territory.
A Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin and an Ocean Wind Warning for Tropical Cyclone are issued in Western Australia.
A Severe Weather Warning for damaging winds and heavy rainfall is issued for parts of Daly and Arnhem districts in the Northern Territory.
A Severe Weather Warning for damaging surf is issued for parts of Tiwi and Arnhem districts in the Northern Territory.
Final Gale Warnings are issued for the Southern Area, while a Gale Warning is issued for the Western Area in New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory.
A Strong Wind Warning is issued for the Townsville and Mackay coasts, with a Hazardous Surf Warning for the K'gari Coast in Queensland.
A Strong Wind Warning for Friday is issued for Port Phillip and the West Coast in Victoria.
A Strong Wind Warning is issued for the Spencer Gulf, Invest St, Upper West, Lower West, Central, South Central, Upper South East, and Lower South East coasts in South Australia.
Strong Wind Warnings are issued for Sydney Enclosed Waters, Sydney, Illawarra, Batemans, and Eden coasts in New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory.
A Strong Wind Warning is issued for the Far North West Coast in Tasmania.
Final Flood Warnings are issued for the Ord River, while Flood Warnings are issued for the Oakover and Nullagine Rivers, and a Minor Flood Warning is issued for the Fitzroy River in Western Australia.
A Flood Watch is in effect for the Top End of the Northern Territory.
Flood Watches are issued for the northern parts of the Cape York Peninsula in Queensland.
A Moderate Flood Warning is issued for the Daly River, with a Flood Warning for the Victoria River in the Northern Territory.
Flood Warnings are issued for the Eucla District in Western Australia and the Inland Rivers in South Australia.
A Road Weather Alert for Adelaide is canceled in South Australia.
A Minor Flood Warning is issued for the Katherine River in the Northern Territory.
Final Flood Warnings are issued for the Tully River, while Flood Warnings are issued for the Salt Lakes District Rivers in Western Australia and the Paroo River in Queensland.
A Minor Flood Warning is issued for the Paroo River in New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory.
A Moderate Flood Warning is issued for Eyre Creek, with a Minor Flood Warning for the Georgina River in Queensland.
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Weather forecast supplemented by Bureau of Meteorology (bom.gov.au)
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Wally's Weather provides professionally researched data and information. Andrew aka 'Wally' has over 20 years of experience in meteorology research and data analysis. In 2023 finished top 4 for the AMOS national weather forecasting competition. The content here is provided as educational information aimed at providing the community and businesses with the tools required to determine local-based forecasts. IMPORTANT: The forecasts and information posted should never be used on their own to make business decisions as local influences.
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