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Monsoon Update
Tropical low (08U) near Cocos (Keeling) Islands is moving eastward and may develop into a tropical cyclone with a moderate risk by late Monday. While its east-southeast track positions it south of Christmas Island on Tuesday, no direct threat is anticipated in the next 7 days as it moves towards the Pilbara coast later in the week.
The monsoon is intensifying near the Kimberley and western Top End coast. There's a potential for a tropical low to form within this strengthening monsoon, likely moving southeast and crossing either the north Kimberley or western Top End coast as a weak tropical low on Wednesday, with a low chance of developing into a cyclone if it moves slowly.
Wednesday we should see things start to show and it is looking more like the low in the Coral Sea may shift around a bit while the monsoon intensifies to the NW of the country.
National
The ongoing monsoon will sustain rainfall and storms in northern Australia, coupled with humid and unstable winds causing precipitation in eastern WA. Meanwhile, Tasmania, eastern Queensland, and northeast New South Wales will experience scattered showers, while a high-pressure ridge brings hot and dry conditions to South Australia, Victoria, and inland New South Wales.
Synoptic | Temp/Rain | Wind | Sea Surface Temp
State
A high over the Tasman Sea weakens with a ridge. A trough in Coral Sea may become a monsoon trough, potentially forming tropical lows. Trough moves across southern Queensland, returning to western Queensland. New high over Great Australian Bight extends a ridge and wind surge over southeast, reaching Tasman Sea later.
ACCESS (Values are rainfall over 3 hours)
4-day
Monday: Patchy showers and thunderstorms in western areas, isolated showers in eastern districts south of Townsville, mostly clear elsewhere with breezy winds.
Tuesday: Some showers and storms in the north, isolated showers in the east and sunny elsewhere. Above average temps in the southwest, near average elsewhere.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers inland and scattered storms in the north. Above average temperatures in southwest and southern interior.
Thursday: Some showers likely in the north, sunny in the southwest, temperatures near average in the north and above average elsewhere.
North Tropical Coast and Tablelands:
Max temperature: 32°C, Min temperature: 19°C, Wind speed: 20-30 km/h, Wind direction: Southeasterly, Rainfall: High chance of showers near coast, medium elsewhere, Outlook: Partly cloudy with chance of thunderstorm coastal.
Herbert and Lower Burdekin:
Max temperature: 33°C, Min temperature: 20°C, Wind speed: 20-30 km/h, Wind direction: Southeasterly, Rainfall: Showers likely, Partly cloudy.
Central Coast and Whitsundays:
High temperature 32°C, low temperature 20°C, southeasterly winds 25-35 km/h, high chance of showers along coastal fringe, medium chance elsewhere, chance of thunderstorm, partly cloudy condition.
Peninsula:
Max temperature: Low to mid 30s, Min temperature: Low to mid 20s, Wind speed: 15-25 km/h, Wind direction: East to southeasterly, Rainfall: Showers likely, Other: Partly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms.
Gulf Country:
The weather will have a max temperature in the mid 30s, with light winds becoming easterly 20 to 30 km/h, a slight chance of a shower near the coast mainly in the early morning, near zero chance of rain elsewhere, and overnight temperatures falling to the mid 20s.
Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders:
Max temperature: 30-35°C, Min temperature: low 20s°C, Wind: easterly 25-40 km/h decreasing to 15-20 km/h, Rainfall: slight chance of a shower in the southeast, near zero elsewhere, Weather: Partly cloudy.
Capricornia:
Max temperature: 30°C, Min temperature: 18-22°C, Wind speed: 25-35 km/h southeasterly, Wind direction: south, Rainfall: chance of showers, Other: Partly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms.
Central Highlands and Coalfields:
Max temperature: Low to mid 30s, Min temperature: 17-22, Wind speed: 15-35 km/h, Wind direction: Southeast to east, Rainfall: Slight chance of showers in the northeast, Other: Partly cloudy with thunderstorm chance in the northeast.
Central West:
Max temperature in the mid to high 30s, min temperature in the low 20s, wind speeds easterly increasing to 25-35 km/h then decreasing to 15-20 km/h, sunny weather with overnight temperatures falling to low 20s and daytime temperatures rising.
North West:
Mostly sunny with daytime temperatures reaching the mid to high 30s, winds easterly 25 to 35 km/h becoming light, overnight temperatures falling to the low to mid 20s.
Channel Country:
The weather report indicates high 30s for daytime temperatures, low to mid 20s for overnight temperatures, easterly winds at 25 to 35 km/h, and a sunny forecast with no mention of rainfall.
Maranoa and Warrego:
Maximum temperature in the low to mid 30s, minimum temperature between 18 and 22, wind speed starting at 20 to 30 km/h then decreasing to 15 to 20 km/h, easterly wind direction, no rainfall, and a sunny weather pattern.
Darling Downs and Granite Belt:
Maximum temperature: 35°C, Minimum temperature: 18°C, Wind speed: 25-35 km/h easterly, Wind direction: Easterly, Rainfall: Near zero chance, Partly cloudy with medium chance of showers in Granite Belt in the morning.
Wide Bay and Burnett:
The weather will be partly cloudy with a high chance of showers along the coastal fringe and a medium chance elsewhere, with the possibility of a thunderstorm, southeasterly winds of 25 to 35 km/h, with overnight temperatures dropping to between 17 and 21 degrees and daytime temperatures reaching around 30 degrees.
Southeast Coast:
Max temperature: mid to high 20s, Min temperature: 18-21, Wind speed: 25-35 km/h SE, Wind direction: southeasterly, Rainfall: High chance of showers, Other: Partly cloudy with chance of thunderstorm along coastal fringe.
WEATHER WARNINGS
NSW/ACT
Strong Wind Warning for Byron Coast.
Gale Warning for Western, Southern, Southeastern, Northeastern, and Southern Areas.
Storm Force Wind Warning for Southeastern and Southern Areas.
TAS
Strong Wind Warning for Monday for South East and South West coasts.
WA
Strong Wind Warning for Ningaloo, Gascoyne, Geraldton, Lancelin, Perth, Bunbury Geographe, and Leeuwin coasts.
Initial Flood Warning for Eucla District.
Ocean Wind Warning for Tropical Cyclone.
Initial Flood Warning for Salt Lakes District Rivers.
Initial Minor Flood Warning for the Fitzroy River.
Flood Watch for East Kimberly, Salt Lake, Nullarbor District Rivers, Sandy Desert, and Parts of Pilbara Coast Rivers.
Initial Flood Warning for Oakover, Nullagine, and Coongan Rivers.
Final Flood Warning For The Oakover, Nullagine, And Coongan Rivers.
NT
Minor Flood Warning for the Upper Victoria River.
Moderate Flood Warning for the Daly River.
Flood Watch for Victoria, Katherine, Daly, Fitzmaurice, Moyle, Waterhouse, and East Kimberley Rivers.
Minor Flood Warning for the Daintree River.
Minor Flood Warning for the Katherine River.
Final Flood Warning for the Roper And Waterhouse Rivers.
QLD
Hazardous Surf Warning for Monday for Sunshine Coast Waters, Gold Coast Waters & K'gari Coast.
Strong Wind Warning for Hervey Bay, Sunshine Coast Waters, Moreton Bay, Gold Coast Waters & Cooktown, Cairns, Townsville, Mackay, Capricornia.
Final Flood Warning For The Flinders River.
Minor Flood Warning for the Herbert River.
Minor Flood Warning for the Mulgrave River and Flood Warning for the Russell River.
Minor Flood Warning for the Daintree River.
Moderate Flood Warning for the Tully River and Minor Flood Warning for the Murray River.
Minor Flood Warning for the Paroo River (Qld).
Moderate Flood Warning for the Diamantina River.
Minor Flood Warning for the Paroo River (Nsw).
Final Flood Warning for the Warrego River (Nsw).
Moderate Flood Warning for Eyre Creek and Minor Flood Warning for the Georgina River.
SA
Fire Weather Warning for West Coast, Eastern Eyre Peninsula, Lower Eyre Peninsula, Mount Lofty Ranges, Yorke Peninsula, and Lower South East.
Heatwave Warning for South Australia.
Storms - Heatwave - Fire danger
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National maps by Weatherzone (weatherzone.com.au)
State maps by Windy (Windy.com)
Weather forecast supplemented by Bureau of Meteorology (bom.gov.au)
Rainfall daily totals (https://meteologix.com/ )
AccuWeather (https://www.accuweather.com/)
Nine Weather (https://www.9news.com.au/weather)
Wally's Weather provides professionally researched data and information. Andrew aka 'Wally' has over 20 years of experience in meteorology research and data analysis. In 2023 finished top 4 for the AMOS national weather forecasting competition. The content here is provided as educational information aimed at providing the community and businesses with the tools required to determine local-based forecasts. IMPORTANT: The forecasts and information posted should never be used on their own to make business decisions as local influences.
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