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Monsoon update
06U / 94P was around 963 kilometers west of Port Vila, Vanuatu, but has now shifted to a new location near 16.6S 159.2E. Satellite images show a broad and partially exposed circulation center with scattered bands in the southern part. The conditions for its development seem favorable, with good upper-level outflow, low vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures. However, there's some disagreement among global models about its future path. One model suggests a southeastward track over the next 48 hours before turning south toward New Caledonia, while another model predicts a slow eastward track before a southeastward turn north of New Caledonia. Currently, the system has sustained winds of 20 to 25 knots with a minimum sea level pressure around 997 hPa. The likelihood of it developing into a significant tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours is considered medium. Still looking like it is heading SE after 4 days.
EC | ACCESS | GFS
National
Troughs will bring showers and storms to the northern tropics, with isolated storms reaching central Queensland and northern New South Wales. Onshore flow is expected to drive showers along the coastal areas of Queensland and northeast New South Wales. High pressure will dominate much of the southern regions, keeping them dry and settled.
Synoptic | Temp/Rain | Wind | Sea Surface Temp
State
An inland trough extends through central and southern Queensland, drifting west with unsettled conditions. A ridge persists over eastern Queensland, while a weak trough lies across the Peninsula from a low in the eastern Coral Sea. Both the ridge and trough are expected to persist for several days.
ACCESS (Values are rainfall over 3 hours)
4-day
Thursday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected in the Peninsula, Gulf Country, northern interior and southern Queensland. Isolated showers in eastern districts south of Cairns and scattered showers south of Mackay. Severe thunderstorms possible in the southern and northern interior. Mostly clear in the southwest with the chance of raised dust in the Channel Country. Winds will be light to moderate from the southeast, with fresh winds at times in the southwest and southeast coast. Winds on the Peninsula will be light and northwesterly.
Friday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms in western Queensland and the Gulf Country. Scattered showers in the Peninsula and east coast north of Cairns. Scattered showers in eastern districts south of Cairns. Partly cloudy elsewhere. Max temperatures below average in western QLD, above average elsewhere.
Saturday: In western Queensland, the Gulf Country, Peninsula, and southern inland Queensland, there will be isolated showers and thunderstorms, which may become scattered on the Peninsula. In eastern districts south of Cairns, there will be isolated showers which may become scattered in South East Queensland. It will be partly cloudy elsewhere. Maximum temperatures will be below average in western and southern Queensland, but above average elsewhere.
Sunday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms in western Queensland, the Gulf Country, and Peninsula. Showers in eastern districts, more scattered in South East Queensland. Partly cloudy. Below-average maximum temperatures in the northwest, above average elsewhere.
North Tropical Coast and Tablelands:
Max temperature: around 30, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: 15 to 25 km/h, Wind direction: east to southeasterly, Rainfall: high chance of showers, Other: Partly cloudy, chance of thunderstorm inland, light winds becoming light in the late evening.
Herbert and Lower Burdekin:
Maximum temperature of 30 to 35, minimum temperature falling to low to mid 20s, wind speed of southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the morning then becoming northeast to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h, chance of showers with a thunderstorm in the north, and partly cloudy overall.
Central Coast and Whitsundays:
Max temperature: low to mid 30s, minimum temperature: low to mid 20s, wind speed: 20 to 30 km/h, wind direction: east to southeasterly, rainfall: slight chance of a shower, other: partly cloudy.
Peninsula:
Max temperature: low to mid 30s; Min temperature: low to mid 20s; Wind speed: light; Wind direction: N/A; Rainfall: High chance of showers; Other: Partly cloudy with chance of thunderstorm.
Gulf Country:
Max temperature: low to mid 30s, Min temperature: mid 20s, Wind speed: light winds becoming northeast to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the morning then becoming light in the late afternoon, Wind direction: northeast to southeasterly, Rainfall: high chance of showers, Other: partly cloudy, chance of a thunderstorm.
Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders:
Max temperature: 32-37, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: light, Wind direction: east to southeasterly, Rainfall: medium chance of showers, Other: partly cloudy, chance of thunderstorm.
Capricornia:
Max temperature: low to mid 30s, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: 25 to 35 km/h, Wind direction: southeasterly, Rainfall: Partly cloudy with medium chance of showers near the coast and slight chance elsewhere.
Central Highlands and Coalfields:
Max temperature: low to mid 30s, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: becoming east to southeasterly 20 to 30 km/h, Wind direction: easterly to southeasterly, Rainfall: slight chance of a shower in the south, near zero chance elsewhere, Other: mostly sunny with a chance of a thunderstorm in the southwest in the morning and afternoon.
Central West:
Max temperature: mid to high 30s; Min temperature: low to mid 20s; Wind speed: east to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h; Wind direction: east to southeasterly; Rainfall: partly cloudy with medium chance of showers, most likely in the late morning and afternoon; Other: chance of a thunderstorm; Wind speed shifting to east to northeasterly 20 to 30 km/h before dawn then shifting back to east to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the early afternoon.
North West:
Max temperature: mid to high 30s, Min temperature: mid 20s, Wind speed: south to southeasterly 20 to 30 km/h, Wind direction: east to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h, Rainfall: high chance of showers in the northeast, medium chance elsewhere, Other: partly cloudy, chance of a thunderstorm.
Channel Country:
Maximum temperature: 35 to 40, Minimum temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: 25 to 35 km/h south to southeasterly, Wind direction: south to southeasterly, Rainfall: Slight chance of a shower in the northeast in the afternoon and evening, Mostly sunny elsewhere with near zero chance of rain, Other: Chance of a thunderstorm in the east from the late morning.
Maranoa and Warrego:
Max temperature: low to mid 30s, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h turning to east to northeasterly 20 to 30 km/h early in the morning then east to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h in the late afternoon, Chance of showers: high in the west, medium elsewhere, Chance of thunderstorm: possibly severe, Partly cloudy.
Darling Downs and Granite Belt:
Max temperature: 35, Min temperature: 19, Wind speed: 25-35 km/h, Wind direction: Easterly, Rainfall: Slight chance of shower, Other: Partly cloudy.
Wide Bay and Burnett:
Max temperature: around 30, Min temperature: low 20s, Wind speed: 25 to 35 km/h southeasterly, Wind direction: southeasterly, Rainfall: high chance of showers along the coastal fringe, medium chance elsewhere, Sky condition: partly cloudy
Southeast Coast:
Maximum temperature: 30°C, minimum temperature: 19-23°C, wind speed: 25-35 km/h from the southeast, chance of showers, partly cloudy.
WEATHER WARNINGS
Strong Wind Warning for Moreton Bay and Gold Coast Waters.
Fire Weather Warning for Barkly North.
Strong Wind Warning for Spencer Gulf, Gulf St Vincent, and Adelaide Metropolitan Waters.
Fire Weather Warning for Midwest Coast, Capes, Blackwood, and Southern Forests.
Strong Wind Warning for the Lower East Coast on Thursday.
Strong Wind Warning for Byron and Coffs coasts (Cancellation for Macquarie Coast).
Minor Flood Warning for the Bulloo River.
Minor Flood Warning for the Paroo River (Queensland).
Major Flood Warning for the Flinders River.
Flood Warning for the Inland Rivers in South Australia.
Minor Flood Warning for the Paroo River (New South Wales).
Major Flood Warning for the Balonne River.
Minor Flood Warning for Cooper Creek.
Major Flood Warning for the Nicholson River and Flood Warning for the Leichhardt River.
Moderate Flood Warning for the Diamantina River.
Moderate Flood Warning for the Eyre Creek.
Major Flood Warning for the Moonie River.
Minor Flood Warning for the Dawson River.
Final Flood Warning for the Herbert River.
Minor Flood Warning for the Lower Warrego River (Queensland).
Storms - Heatwave - Fire danger
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National maps by Weatherzone (weatherzone.com.au)
State maps by Windy (Windy.com)
Weather forecast supplemented by Bureau of Meteorology (bom.gov.au)
Rainfall daily totals (https://meteologix.com/ )
AccuWeather (https://www.accuweather.com/)
Nine Weather (https://www.9news.com.au/weather)
Wally's Weather provides professionally researched data and information. Andrew aka 'Wally' has over 20 years of experience in meteorology research and data analysis. In 2023 finished top 4 for the AMOS national weather forecasting competition. The content here is provided as educational information aimed at providing the community and businesses with the tools required to determine local-based forecasts. IMPORTANT: The forecasts and information posted should never be used on their own to make business decisions as local influences.
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