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Monsoon update
06U is expected to strengthen a little and head a little West then back East. There is still a lot of doubt after that as to what will happen. But we continue to take a 4 day ahead approach. The EC has it moving closer to the coast but even then, at least for now it looks like it might just head back East then to the graveyard via the corridor between Vanuatu and New Caledonia.
Ex TC Kirrily should pass over the NSW coast by Tuesday with storms over the Central NSW through to the NSW coast late Monday.
EC | ACCESS | GFS
National
A low, along with troughs, will generate rain, showers, and storms over NSW, VIC, eastern SA, and eastern Tas, drawing heat to the east. Troughs and moist winds will trigger showers and storms over the north. High pressure will keep southern WA and southeast QLD dry.
Synoptic | Temp/Rain | Wind | Sea Surface Temp
State
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Kirrily is moving across the Channel Country District and will cross into New South Wales on Monday. A weak trough will extend over central and southern Queensland on Tuesday before weakening on Wednesday. Another trough may drift west across central and southern Queensland from Thursday before contracting to the far west next weekend. A high in the Tasman Sea extends a weak ridge over southeastern Queensland, which will strengthen on Wednesday and persist for several days. Several highs moving east across the Great Australian Bight and southern Tasman Sea will strengthen this ridge. A low in the eastern Coral Sea will remain offshore and may deepen over the next few days. It could combine with the ridge to enhance coastal winds from late Wednesday but is expected to stay well offshore.
ACCESS (Values are rainfall over 3 hours)
4-day
Monday: Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in western, northern, and far northern Queensland. Widespread showers with rain periods in the Channel Country District. Heavy rainfall and damaging wind gusts possible in the Channel Country District due to ex-Tropical Cyclone Kirrily. Severe thunderstorms with heavy rainfall possible in western, northern, and far northern Queensland. Partly cloudy in the southeast, mostly clear elsewhere. Light to moderate northwest to northeasterly winds, occasionally strong west of Longreach. Winds becoming northeast to southeasterly on the east coast south of Cairns.
Tuesday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms in the west, widespread showers in Cape York. Severe thunderstorms with heavy rain in the north, damaging winds and heavy rain in the far west. Isolated showers on the southeast coast, partly cloudy elsewhere. Below average temps in far southwest, near average in the north of Hughenden, above average elsewhere.
Wednesday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms statewide, mainly showers on the southeast coast. Widespread showers at times in Cape York Peninsula. Partly cloudy with possible dust in the far southwest. Below average temperatures in far southwest, near average in north of Hughenden, and above average elsewhere.
Thursday: Patchy showers and thunderstorms statewide, mostly showers in eastern Queensland south of Ayr. Showers becoming widespread at times over Cape York Peninsula. Mostly sunny in the far southwest. Temperatures below average in the southwest, above average in the central and southern interior, and near average elsewhere.
North Tropical Coast and Tablelands:
Max temperature: around 30, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: light, Wind direction: not specified, Rainfall: high chance of showers, Thunderstorm: possible, Other: Partly cloudy.
Herbert and Lower Burdekin:
Max temperature: 30 to 35, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: Light, Wind direction: Not specified, Rainfall: Partly cloudy with high chance of showers in the north, slight chance elsewhere, Other: Chance of a thunderstorm, Light winds.
Central Coast and Whitsundays:
Max temperature: low to mid 30s, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind: light becoming east to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h, Rainfall: Not specified, Weather: Partly cloudy with light winds.
Peninsula:
Max temperature: low to mid 30s, Min temperature: mid 20s, Wind: light becoming west to northwesterly 15-20 km/h in early afternoon, Rain: high chance of showers south, medium chance elsewhere, Thunderstorm: possible, Cloud cover: Partly cloudy.
Gulf Country:
Max temperature: mid to high 30s | Min temperature: mid to high 20s | Wind speed: northerly 15 to 20 km/h tending northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h | Wind direction: northwesterly to northerly | Rainfall: Medium chance of showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening | Other: Partly cloudy, chance of thunderstorm in evening, overnight temperatures falling to mid to high 20s.
Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders:
Max temperature: low to high 30s, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: 15 to 25 km/h, Wind direction: north to northwesterly, Rainfall: Medium chance of showers, Other conditions: Partly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorm.
Capricornia:
Max temperature: low to mid 30s; Min temperature: low to mid 20s; Wind speed: light, becoming east to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the early afternoon; Wind direction: east to northeasterly; Rainfall: n/a; Weather: Mostly sunny.
Central Highlands and Coalfields:
Max temperature: mid to high 30s, Min temperature: low 20s, Wind speed: 15 to 20 km/h, Wind direction: north to northeasterly, Rainfall: slight chance of a shower in the northwest, near zero chance elsewhere, Other: Mostly sunny, chance of a thunderstorm in the west in the late afternoon and evening.
Central West:
Max temperature: mid to high 30s; Min temperature: low to mid 20s; Wind speed: northerly 25-35 km/h turning west to northwesterly in late morning then becoming light in the evening; Wind direction: northerly turning west to northwesterly; Rainfall: medium chance of showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening; Other: partly cloudy, chance of a thunderstorm, possibly severe in the far south.
North West:
Max temperature: mid to high 30s; Min temperature: mid 20s; Wind: northerly 20 to 30 km/h, becoming light in the evening; Rainfall: Medium chance of showers in the northeast, slight chance elsewhere; Other: Partly cloudy, chance of thunderstorm in the late morning.
Channel Country:
Max temperature: 31 to 39, Min temperature: 24 to 29, Wind speed: 20 to 55 km/h, Wind direction: northwest to northeasterly, Rainfall: Partly cloudy with very high chance of rain near NSW border and medium chance elsewhere, Thunderstorms possible, Heavy falls possible in southeastern area, Damaging winds possible near SA border, Chance of raised dust near SA border in late morning and afternoon.
Maranoa and Warrego:
Max temperature: 41, Min temperature: 23, Wind speed: 30 to 45 km/h, Wind direction: NW to NE, Rainfall: Partly cloudy, Medium chance of showers in the west, slight chance elsewhere with chance of severe thunderstorm.
Darling Downs and Granite Belt:
Max temperature: 39, Min temperature: 20, Wind speed: 15-25 km/h, Wind direction: northeasterly, Rainfall: Partly cloudy with chance of thunderstorm.
Wide Bay and Burnett:
Max temperature: low to mid 30s, Min temperature: low 20s, Wind: becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the early afternoon, Rainfall: Mostly sunny, Other: light winds becoming light in the late evening, overnight temperatures falling to low 20s.
Southeast Coast:
Max temperature: low 30s, Min temperature: low 20s, Wind speed: light, Wind direction: northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h, Rainfall: None, Other: Partly cloudy. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the late afternoon then becoming light in the evening.
WEATHER WARNINGS
Strong Wind Warning for Monday for Central Gippsland and East Gippsland coasts.
Strong Wind Warning Pilbara Coast East, Per Local & Ningaloo, Gascoyne, Geraldton, Lancelin, Perth & Bun Geographes. Cancelled Eucla Coast.
Severe Weather Warning (Heavy, Locally Intense Rainfall And Damaging Winds) for parts of Channel Country and Maranoa and Warrego.
Severe Weather Warning (Heavy, Locally Intense Rainfall And Damaging Winds) for parts of North East Pastoral district.
Strong Wind Warning for Coffs, Macquarie, Hunter, Sydney, Illawarra, Batemans, and Eden coasts.
Severe Weather Warning (Heavy, Locally Intense Rainfall And Damaging Winds) for Upper Western and parts of Lower Western.
Strong Wind Warning for Spencer Gulf, Gulf St Vincent, Adelaide Metropolitan Waters & Far West, Upper West, Lower West, and Central coasts.
Hazardous Surf Warning for Byron and Coffs coasts. Cancellation for Hunter and Macquarie coasts.
Major Flood Warning For The Flinders River And Final Flood Warning For The Cloncurry River.
Moderate Flood Warning For The Diamantina River.
Strong Wind Warning Monday Banks St & Franklin Sound, Fred Hen Bay & Norfolks, Storm Bay & Far NW, CN, Lower E, SE & South West coasts.
Minor Flood Warning For The Bulloo River.
Major Flood Warning For The Balonne River And Moderate Flood Warning For The Condamine River.
Flood Watch For Far West And South West Of New South Wales.
Moderate Flood Warning For The Nicholson River And Flood Warning For The Leichhardt River.
Moderate Flood Warning For The Georgina River And Minor Flood Warning For The Eyre Creek.
Flood Watch For Parts Of The Carpentaria Coast, Eastern And Central Inland.
Major Flood Warning For The Moonie River.
Fire Weather Warning for Mallee and Wimmera.
Fire Weather Warning for Eastern Eyre Peninsula, Mid North, Mount Lofty Ranges, Yorke Peninsula, Murraylands, and Upper South East.
Minor Flood Warning For The Thomson And Barcoo Rivers And Cooper Creek.
Moderate Flood Warning For The Paroo River (Qld).
Minor Flood Warning For The Dawson And Connors And Isaac Rivers.
Minor Flood Warning For The Paroo River (Nsw).
Minor Flood Warning For The Lower Warrego River (Qld).
Storms - Heatwave - Fire danger
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Wally's Weather provides professionally researched data and information. Andrew aka 'Wally' has over 20 years of experience in meteorology research and data analysis. In 2023 finished top 4 for the AMOS national weather forecasting competition. The content here is provided as educational information aimed at providing the community and businesses with the tools required to determine local-based forecasts. IMPORTANT: The forecasts and information posted should never be used on their own to make business decisions as local influences.
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