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Monsoon Update
Ex TC Lincoln will move generally southward, gradually shifting to a south-southeastward direction due to a steering influence from a high-pressure system over Western Australia. Along its path, the cyclone is expected to slightly strengthen, reaching a wind speed of 40 knots by 12 hours and maintaining that intensity until just after 36 hours. Despite being in a somewhat favourable environment with low vertical wind shear (VWS) and warm sea surface temperatures (SST), the forecast anticipates a marginal increase in unfavourable conditions after 12 hours, with a rise in VWS likely causing less favourable conditions. The cyclone is projected to make landfall in southern Shark Bay, Australia, around 48 hours, with its intensity diminishing to a 30-knot dissipating tropical cyclone.
National
Showers and storms affecting northeast NSW, QLD, northern tropics, and western WA, with the most intense activity and strong winds near Tropical Cyclone Lincoln in WA's northwest. Showers and cool winds prevailing over TAS, eastern VIC, and southeastern NSW. Heatwave conditions impacting parts of eastern WA.
Synoptic | Temp/Rain | Wind | Sea Surface Temp
State
Upper low in northwest enhances rain eastward. Slow movement until weekend, then weakens and moves south. Coastal trough brings heavy rain. Transient, may drift south. Trough in southwest moving east, unsettled weekend. Ridge in south and central next week.
ACCESS (Values are rainfall over 3 hours)
4-day
Saturday: Cloudy with showers, thunderstorms, and heavy rain in northeastern Queensland. Isolated storms in other areas with light winds.
Sunday: Eastern districts: Scattered showers, possible heavy falls in SE Queensland morning. Isolated showers, mainly sunny in southwest. Below average temps except in far southwest, Peninsula.
Monday: Rain and storms in the north, potentially severe. Showers in the east and central. Mostly sunny in the southwest and south.
Tuesday: Showers and storms in north; coastal showers east; mostly sunny south.
North Tropical Coast and Tablelands:
Maximum temperature: 31°C, Minimum temperature: Low to mid 20s, Wind speed: Light becoming east to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h, Wind direction: Southeasterly, Rainfall: Very high chance with possible heavy falls, Other: Cloudy with chance of thunderstorm.
Herbert and Lower Burdekin:
Max temperature: mid to high 20s, Min temperature: low 20s, Wind speed: light becoming southeasterly 15-20 km/h, Wind direction: light, Rainfall: Very high chance with heavy falls in the south, Other: Cloudy with chance of thunderstorms.
Central Coast and Whitsundays:
Maximum temperature of around 30°C, minimum temperature falling to the low to mid 20s, light winds becoming southeasterly at 15 to 20 km/h, very high chance of rain mainly from late morning, with cloudy skies.
Peninsula:
Partly cloudy with a high chance of showers and a possible thunderstorm in the late morning and light winds shifting to west to northwesterly 15-20 km/h before becoming light in the evening, with temperatures dropping to the low to mid 20s overnight and reaching the low to mid 30s during the day.
Gulf Country:
Max temperature: low to mid 30s, Min temperature: mid 20s, Wind speed: light, Wind direction: east to southeasterly, Rainfall: medium chance of showers and chance of a thunderstorm, Other: Partly cloudy with light winds.
Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders:
The weather forecast includes a maximum temperature of 32°C, a minimum temperature in the low 20s, easterly winds at 15 to 25 km/h, high chance of showers mainly in the morning and afternoon, possible thunderstorms, and cloudy conditions.
Capricornia:
The weather forecast includes a maximum temperature of 33°C, minimum temperature in the low to mid 20s, light winds, high chance of showers in the afternoon and evening, with cloudy conditions overall.
Central Highlands and Coalfields:
The forecast includes daytime temperatures in the mid to high 20s with light winds and a high chance of showers in the late morning, with overnight temperatures dropping to the low to mid 20s.
Central West:
Maximum temperature: 33°C, Minimum temperature: 20°C, Wind speed: Light becoming easterly 15-25 km/h, Wind direction: Easterly, Rainfall: Medium chance of showers, Thunderstorm likely.
North West:
Max temperature: low to mid 30s, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: Light becoming easterly 15 to 25 km/h, Wind direction: Easterly becoming light, Rainfall: High chance of showers in the northeast, medium chance elsewhere, Other: Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm.
Channel Country:
Max temperature: 39°C, Min temperature: mid to high 20s, Wind speed: 25 to 35 km/h, Wind direction: South to southeasterly, Rainfall: Near zero chance, Conditions: Mostly sunny with medium chance of showers in the northeast and a chance of a thunderstorm.
Maranoa and Warrego:
The weather will be partly cloudy with a high chance of showers in the northeast and a slight chance elsewhere, with a possibility of thunderstorms, while temperatures will fall to the low to mid 20s overnight and reach 27 to 37 during the day with winds shifting from north to northwesterly to southeast to southwesterly and eventually northwest to northeasterly, blowing at 15 to 20 km/h.
Darling Downs and Granite Belt:
Maximum temperature of 35 degrees, minimum temperature in the low to mid 20s, light winds becoming north to northwesterly, high chance of showers with possible thunderstorms and heavy falls, and overnight temperatures in the low to mid 20s.
Wide Bay and Burnett:
Max temperature: 32°C, Min temperature: 20°C, Wind speed: Light, Wind direction: Variable, Rainfall: Showers likely, Cloud cover: Cloudy.
Southeast Coast:
Max temperature reaching around 30°C, with possible severe thunderstorms, heavy falls, light winds, and overnight temperatures in the low to mid 20s.
WEATHER WARNINGS
Strong Wind Warning for Pilbara Coast West & Ningaloo and Esperance coasts, with cancellation for Pilbara Coast East.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning (Damaging Winds) for parts of Carpentaria and Barkly districts.
Fire Weather Warning for Burrup, Ashburton Coast, and Exmouth Gulf Coast.
Cancellation of Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Metropolitan, Illawarra, and Central Tablelands.
Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin and Ocean Wind Warning for Tropical Cyclone.
Tropical Cyclone Warning for Onslow to Carnarvon, including Exmouth & Carnarvon, excluding Onslow, with Cyclone Watch extending to Wooramel Roadhouse.
Initial Minor Flood Warning for the Bohle River.
Strong Wind Warning for Port Phillip, Western Port & Central, Central Gippsland, and East Gippsland coasts.
Gale Warning for Lower East, South East & South West coasts.
Minor Flood Warning for the Paroo River (Qld).
Strong Wind Warning for Sydney Enclosed Waters & Hunter, Sydney, Illawarra, Batemans, and Eden coasts.
Minor Flood Warning for the Mulgrave River and Flood Warning for the Russell River.
Flood Watch for Parts of Pilbara, Gascoyne Coast, and Central West District Rivers.
Moderate Flood Warning for the Diamantina River.
Major Flood Warning for the Flinders River.
Minor Flood Warning for the Fitzroy River.
Major Flood Warning for the Nicholson River.
Minor Flood Warning for the Paroo River (Nsw).
Flood Warning for the Inland Rivers Sa.
Moderate Flood Warning for Eyre Creek and Minor Flood Warning for the Georgina River.
Minor Flood Warning for the Daly River.
Minor Flood Warning for the Warrego River (Nsw).
Initial Minor Flood Warning for the Tully River and Flood Warning for the Murray River.
Final Flood Warning for the Bokhara River.
Storms - Heatwave - Fire danger
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State maps by Windy (Windy.com)
Weather forecast supplemented by Bureau of Meteorology (bom.gov.au)
Rainfall daily totals (https://meteologix.com/ )
AccuWeather (https://www.accuweather.com/)
Nine Weather (https://www.9news.com.au/weather)
Wally's Weather provides professionally researched data and information. Andrew aka 'Wally' has over 20 years of experience in meteorology research and data analysis. In 2023 finished top 4 for the AMOS national weather forecasting competition. The content here is provided as educational information aimed at providing the community and businesses with the tools required to determine local-based forecasts. IMPORTANT: The forecasts and information posted should never be used on their own to make business decisions as local influences.
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