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Monsoon Update
Ex TC Lincoln is currently moving southwestward along the northern edge of a high-pressure area above Western Australia. It will continue on this path until approximately 24 hours from now when the high-pressure system shifts, allowing the cyclone to turn southward. By around 60 hours, the forecast predicts that the cyclone will make landfall just west of Learmonth. After making landfall, it will turn southeastward towards inland Australia and lose strength, dissipating by 96 hours. The intensity forecast anticipates gradual strengthening until about 48 hours due to favorable conditions like warm sea temperatures, but also factors in moderate challenges like mid-level wind shear (20-30 knots) and some dry air. The peak intensity is expected to reach 50 knots around 48 hours, after which the system rapidly weakens upon interacting with land and dissipates by 96 hours.
National
Showers and storms affecting northern tropics, QLD, and NSW, with potential strong winds and heavy rain near Tropical Cyclone Lincoln in WA's Pilbara. Showers and cooler winds impacting TAS and VIC due to a front, with the cooling winds moving up the NSW coast.
Hot weather prevailing in WA and NSW.
Synoptic | Temp/Rain | Wind | Sea Surface Temp
State
High in Tasman Sea maintains ridge over eastern Queensland, upper low in northwest with slow-moving rain areas in northeastern Queensland. Low drifts south, weakens from Sunday, with trough entering southwestern Queensland on Friday and spreading unsettled conditions. Ridge builds across southern and central Queensland early next week.
ACCESS (Values are rainfall over 3 hours)
4-day
Friday: Showers, rain, thunderstorms in northern Queensland. Severe thunderstorms with heavy rain possible. Isolated showers in south east. Winds mainly east to northeasterly.
Saturday: Cloudy with showers, storms in various areas of Queensland, some severe. Cooler temperatures for most regions.
Sunday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms statewide except southwest. Scattered showers in the east coast, South East Queensland, and Far North. Mostly sunny in the southwest. Temps below average.
Monday: Monday's weather: Some isolated showers and storms in the north, scattered in the Peninsula. Isolated showers in the east and central interior. Mostly sunny in the southwest. Below-average temperatures.
North Tropical Coast and Tablelands:
Maximum temperature of 30°C, minimum temperature in the low to mid 20s, easterly wind speeds of 15 to 20 km/h, very high chance of rain with thunderstorms likely in late morning and afternoon, light winds shifting to easterly and then becoming light in the evening, and cloudy conditions.
Herbert and Lower Burdekin:
The weather forecast includes a maximum temperature of around 30°C, minimum temperature in the low to mid 20s, light winds, cloudy skies with very high chance of rain, likely in late morning and afternoon, possible thunderstorm, and overnight temperatures falling to low to mid 20s.
Central Coast and Whitsundays:
Max temperature around 30°C, overnight temperatures in the low to mid 20s, light winds becoming easterly at 15 to 20 km/h, partly cloudy with a medium chance of showers in the north and slight chance elsewhere, and rainfall likely.
Peninsula:
The weather will be partly cloudy with high chance of showers and a thunderstorm, with temperatures reaching the low 30s and then falling to the low to mid 20s overnight, light winds becoming west to northwesterly and then light in the late afternoon.
Gulf Country:
The weather will be partly cloudy with a high chance of showers and thunderstorms, light winds, with maximum temperatures in the low to mid 30s and minimum temperatures in the low to mid 20s.
Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders:
The weather forecast includes a maximum temperature of around 30°C, minimum temperature in the low 20s, wind speed of 15 to 20 km/h from the east to northeasterly direction, with very high chance of showers, potential thunderstorm, and cloudy conditions.
Capricornia:
Max temperature in the low to mid 30s, minimum temperature falling to the low to mid 20s, wind starting light and becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h, no rainfall, partly cloudy with light winds overall.
Central Highlands and Coalfields:
Max temperature: low to mid 30s, Min temperature: low 20s, Wind speed: light, Wind direction: not specified, Rainfall: slight chance of showers, Weather: Partly cloudy with the possibility of thunderstorms in the south.
Central West:
Partly cloudy with medium chance of showers north of Longreach, slight chance elsewhere, chance of a thunderstorm, light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the morning, then light in the late evening, with temperatures ranging from low 20s overnight to low to mid 30s during the day.
North West:
Maximum temperature will reach the low to mid 30s with light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h, with showers likely in the late morning and afternoon, possibly with a thunderstorm and overnight temperatures falling to the low to mid 20s.
Channel Country:
Max temperature: mid to high 30s, Min temperature: low to high 20s, Wind speed: northwest to northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h becoming light, Wind direction: northeast to southeasterly 20 to 30 km/h, Rainfall: Slight chance of a shower in the southeast, Other: Mostly sunny with near zero chance of rain, chance of raised dust in the northwest, and chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.
Maranoa and Warrego:
The daytime weather forecast includes maximum temperatures of 34 to 39°C with moderate to low probability of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening, accompanied by north to northwesterly winds at 15 to 20 km/h, becoming light at night with an overnight low to mid 20s temperature range.
Darling Downs and Granite Belt:
High chance of showers, partly cloudy, light winds, temperatures ranging from low to high 30s with a chance of thunderstorms in the late morning.
Wide Bay and Burnett:
Max temperature: Low to mid 30s; Min temperature: 19-22; Wind speed: Light becoming northeasterly 15-20 km/h in the late afternoon; Wind direction: Initially light, becoming northeasterly; Rainfall: Chance of thunderstorm in the south from late morning; Other: Partly cloudy.
Southeast Coast:
Max temperature: low to mid 30s, min temperature: 19-22, wind speed: becoming northeasterly 15-20 km/h, wind direction: northeasterly, rainfall: near zero chance, other: partly cloudy with medium chance of showers in the south in the afternoon and evening; slight chance of a severe thunderstorm in the late morning.
WEATHER WARNINGS
Showers and storms affecting northern tropics, QLD, and NSW, with a possibility of strong winds and heavy rain in WA's Pilbara due to Tropical Cyclone Lincoln.
Showers and cooler winds in TAS and VIC caused by a front, with cooling winds moving up the NSW coast.
Hot conditions prevailing in WA and NSW.
Various weather warnings, including Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin, Ocean Wind Warning for Tropical Cyclone, TC Warning for Mardie to Ningaloo, Severe Thunderstorm Warning for parts of Arnhem district, and Strong Wind Warnings for different coastal areas.
Flood-related warnings for rivers like the Lower Barcoo River, Cooper Creek, Nicholson River, Daly River, and others.
Fire Weather Warnings for multiple regions in Western Australia, Tasmania, and various parts of the eastern states.
Various heatwave warnings for Western Australia and Tasmania.
Storms - Heatwave - Fire danger
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National maps by Weatherzone (weatherzone.com.au)
State maps by Windy (Windy.com)
Weather forecast supplemented by Bureau of Meteorology (bom.gov.au)
Rainfall daily totals (https://meteologix.com/ )
AccuWeather (https://www.accuweather.com/)
Nine Weather (https://www.9news.com.au/weather)
Wally's Weather provides professionally researched data and information. Andrew aka 'Wally' has over 20 years of experience in meteorology research and data analysis. In 2023 finished top 4 for the AMOS national weather forecasting competition. The content here is provided as educational information aimed at providing the community and businesses with the tools required to determine local-based forecasts. IMPORTANT: The forecasts and information posted should never be used on their own to make business decisions as local influences.
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