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Monsoon Update
Ex TC Lincoln is approximately 307 kilometers northeast of Broome, Australia. Observations from Koolan Island indicate easterly winds of 14-16 knots sustained, gusting to 25-30 knots, moderate to high vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures (29-30°C). Global models (GFS and ECMWF) suggest a generally west-southwestward track with gradual development over the next 36 to 48 hours as the system moves away from land. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25 to 30 knots, and the minimum sea level pressure is around 999 hPa. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high.
New Long-Range Watch
With the effective reversal of the Monsoon pulse, we will see monsoonal systems return to the Coral Sea, then potentially the gulf and back to the Indian Ocean off the coast of WA. Low-pressure system around the 29th February East of Cairns, could get close to the coast or move West into the Gulf. The 4 day forecast is now picking something approaching. Might be time to put in your forecast for the next cyclone Megan. https://www.wallysweather.com.au/cyclone-season
National
Showers and storms across the northern tropics, QLD, NSW, VIC, and TAS, potentially severe in VIC. Hot and dry winds over VIC and TAS ahead of a cooling wind change with a cold front in the evening. Dry and warm conditions over WA due to high pressure.
Synoptic | Temp/Rain | Wind | Sea Surface Temp
State
High over Tasman Sea to keep ridge over eastern QLD, trough moves out southwest QLD tonight, slow-moving trough over northern Coral Sea/Peninsula with showers/thunderstorms in Far North QLD, upper trough enhances showers/thunderstorms in southwest and northeastern tropics, new trough enters southwest QLD Friday moving through central/southeast districts over weekend.
ACCESS (Values are rainfall over 3 hours)
4-day
Thursday: Scattered showers and storms in northeastern tropics and eastern regions, possible severe storms with heavy rain in east coast areas between Ingham and Cairns. Interior may see scattered storms with chance of severe weather in Central West and North West. Winds mainly from the east to north.
Friday: Showers and storms mainly in northern Queensland, becoming widespread in some areas with heavy rain risk. Scattered precipitation in other parts with varying temperatures.
Saturday: Showers and storms mainly in north Queensland. Sunny in southwest. Temps below average northwest, central; above average south and Capricornia.
Sunday: Sunday: Some showers and storms in north and east QLD. Isolated elsewhere with above average temps in central and southern inland regions. Below average in northwest and southeast. Sunny in the southwest.
North Tropical Coast and Tablelands:
Maximum temperature: 31°C, Minimum temperature: 20-21°C, Wind speed: Light, Wind direction: Variable, Rainfall: Very high chance of rain, Thunderstorm: Possible, Cloud cover: Cloudy.
Herbert and Lower Burdekin:
Maximum temperature around 30°C, minimum temperature in the low to mid 20s, light winds, very high chance of rain with thunderstorms possible, and cloudy with rain likely in the morning and afternoon.
Central Coast and Whitsundays:
The weather will be partly cloudy with maximum temperature around 30, light winds becoming easterly to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h, and a medium chance of showers in the late morning and afternoon, with overnight temperatures falling to the low to mid 20s.
Peninsula:
Max temperature: Low 30s, Min temperature: Low to mid 20s, Wind speed: Light, Wind direction: Variable, Rainfall: Showers likely, Cloudy.
Gulf Country:
Max temperature: low to mid 30s, Min temperature: mid 20s, Wind speed: Light, Wind direction: Variable, Rainfall: High chance of showers, Other: Partly cloudy with chance of severe thunderstorm in the east.
Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders:
The weather includes a max temperature around 30°C, with light winds in the late afternoon, showers likely in the morning and afternoon, and a very high chance of a thunderstorm, possibly severe. Overnight temperatures will drop to the low 20s.
Capricornia:
Maximum temperature in the low to mid 30s, overnight temperatures falling to between 19 and 23, light winds, partly cloudy with slight chance of a shower in the north, near zero chance elsewhere.
Central Highlands and Coalfields:
Partly cloudy with light winds, low 20s overnight, low to mid 30s daytime, medium chance of showers, chance of thunderstorm in morning and afternoon.
Central West:
Partly cloudy with high chance of showers and thunderstorms, temperatures ranging from low 20s overnight to mid 30s during the day, light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the morning.
North West:
Max temperature: low to mid 30s, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: Light, Wind direction: variable, Rainfall: showers likely, Conditions: Partly cloudy with chance of thunderstorms and showers.
Channel Country:
Mid to high 30s, low to mid 20s, 15 to 25 km/h, north to northeasterly, medium chance of showers, slight chance elsewhere, thunderstorm in morning and afternoon.
Maranoa and Warrego:
Max temperature: 37°C, Min temperature: low 20s, Wind speed: Light becoming northerly 15-20 km/h, Wind direction: Northerly, Rainfall: Showers likely, Other: Partly cloudy with chance of thunderstorm.
Darling Downs and Granite Belt:
Max temperature in the low to mid 30s, min temperature between 18 to 23, light winds, showers likely in the southwest and possible thunderstorm later on, partly cloudy skies with slight chance of showers.
Wide Bay and Burnett:
The weather forecast includes a maximum temperature in the low to mid 30s, a minimum temperature between 18 and 22, light winds, partly cloudy conditions with a chance of thunderstorms in the south in late morning and afternoon, and no rainfall expected.
Southeast Coast:
Max temperature: Low 30s, Min temperature: Around 20, Wind speed: Light, Wind direction: Variable, Rainfall: Near zero chance, Other: Partly cloudy with slight chance of shower in southern border ranges and chance of thunderstorm inland in the late morning.
WEATHER WARNINGS
Strong wind warnings for various coastal areas, including Frederick Henry Bay, Norfolk Bays, Storm Bay, Lower East, South East, Port Phillip, Western Port, and Central Coast.
Minor flood warning for the Bulloo River.
Fire weather warnings for Mid North, Riverland, Murraylands, Upper South East, Lower South East, East Coast, Midlands, Upper Derwent Valley, South East, Mallee, Wimmera, Northern Country, North Central, South West, and Central regions.
Moderate flood warning for the Diamantina River.
Flood watch for East, West, and North Kimberley and Fitzroy Rivers.
Major flood warnings for the Flinders River, Nicholson River, and Inland Rivers in SA.
Strong wind warnings for North Kimberley, Ningaloo, Gascoyne, Albany, Esperance, and Eucla coasts, with cancellations for West Kimberley and Leeuwin coasts.
Minor flood warning for the Daly River.
Moderate flood warning for Eyre Creek and minor flood warning for the Georgina River.
Final flood watch for parts of Central Inland Rivers, Bonaparte Coastal Rivers, and Kimberley.
Minor flood warnings for the Paroo River (Nsw) and the Warrego River (Nsw).
Cancellation of severe weather warning for Kimberley district.
Final flood warnings for the Dawson and Isaac Rivers, Lower Warrego River (Qld), and Moonie River.
Storms - Heatwave - Fire danger
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National maps by Weatherzone (weatherzone.com.au)
State maps by Windy (Windy.com)
Weather forecast supplemented by Bureau of Meteorology (bom.gov.au)
Rainfall daily totals (https://meteologix.com/ )
AccuWeather (https://www.accuweather.com/)
Nine Weather (https://www.9news.com.au/weather)
Wally's Weather provides professionally researched data and information. Andrew aka 'Wally' has over 20 years of experience in meteorology research and data analysis. In 2023 finished top 4 for the AMOS national weather forecasting competition. The content here is provided as educational information aimed at providing the community and businesses with the tools required to determine local-based forecasts. IMPORTANT: The forecasts and information posted should never be used on their own to make business decisions as local influences.
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