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Monsoon Update
With 07U is still on track to move into the Gulf, and had fed on the equator well today dropping 160mm over Darwin. There are some big numbers ahead for the Gulf region, and to some extent further South after it moves South probably over the weekend. Mornington Island looks to be about to copy the brunt of the rain. As for cyclone rating, there is a moderate chance by Friday according to the BOM.
National
Troughs will bring showers and storms to the tropics and central Queensland, drawing heat to northern and western Western Australia and the eastern regions. Onshore winds may bring showers and storms to the Queensland coast. A cold front and trough are expected to bring showers and storms to Victoria, Tasmania, and southern New South Wales.
Synoptic | Temp/Rain | Wind | Sea Surface Temp
State
A weak trough continues in western parts of the state, causing unsettled conditions. A high pressure ridge from the Tasman Sea covers central and southern Queensland and will bring showers to the east coast. A monsoon trough is present in the Gulf of Carpentaria and Cape York Peninsula and is expected to deepen. A tropical low in the Northern Territory will likely move east into the Gulf mid-week and then south over the Gulf Coast later in the week. This combination will increase rainfall in Far North Queensland from Wednesday.
ACCESS (Values are rainfall over 3 hours)
4-day
Tuesday: Monday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms in western Queensland, the Gulf Country, and Peninsula, with scattered showers in the southwest and Peninsula. Shows and scattered thunderstorms in eastern districts, with severe thunderstorms possible in southwest Queensland. Light to moderate northeast to southeasterly winds statewide, with fresh winds at times along the east coast south of Yeppoon. Winds on the northern Peninsula and Torres Strait will be light northwesterly.
Wednesday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms statewide, isolated in Western Queensland and South East Queensland. Showers becoming widespread with intermittent rain on the Peninsula. Below average maximum temperatures in the northwest, near average elsewhere.
Thursday: Scattered showers, isolated thunderstorms statewide, isolated in the Channel Country. Widespread showers, occasional rain on the Peninsula and Gulf Coast with potential heavy rainfall, depending on monsoon trough and tropical low. Below average temps in the northwest, near average elsewhere.
Friday: Expect showers, heavy rain in some areas, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in other areas, and partly cloudy conditions with below average temperatures in parts of the northwest and Far North.
North Tropical Coast and Tablelands:
Max temperature: 33, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: light, Wind direction: easterly, Rainfall: chance of showers, Partly cloudy with slight chance of thunderstorm.
Herbert and Lower Burdekin:
Max temperature: low to mid 30s, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: light, Wind direction: east to northeasterly, Rainfall: slight chance of a shower, Other: partly cloudy, chance of thunderstorm in the north.
Central Coast and Whitsundays:
Max temperature: around 30, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: light becoming southeasterly 15-20 km/h then tending easterly 15-25 km/h, Wind direction: varies from south-east to east, Rainfall: high chance of showers, mostly in late morning and afternoon with a chance of thunderstorm, Other: partly cloudy with overnight temperatures falling to low to mid 20s.
Peninsula:
Max temperature: 34, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: light, Wind direction: north to northeasterly, Rainfall: showers, Clouds: Cloudy, Thunderstorm: possible, Heavy falls: possible near west coast.
Gulf Country:
Maximum temperature: low to mid 30s, Minimum temperature: mid 20s, Wind speed: light becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h, Wind direction: northeasterly, Rainfall: high chance of showers with a chance of a thunderstorm, Other: partly cloudy with light winds becoming light in the evening and overnight temperatures falling to the mid 20s.
Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders:
Max temperature: mid to high 30s, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: light winds becoming east to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the morning then becoming light in the middle of the day, Wind direction: east to northeasterly, Rainfall: medium chance of showers in the north, slight chance elsewhere, with heavy falls possible in the north, Other: Partly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorm.
Capricornia:
Max temperature: 30, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: 15 to 25 km/h, Wind direction: southeasterly turning easterly, Rainfall: high chance of showers, Thunderstorm possible, Partly cloudy.
Central Highlands and Coalfields:
Max temperature: 35; Min temperature: low 20s; Wind speed: light; Wind direction: becoming easterly; Rainfall: high chance of showers; Other: Partly cloudy, chance of thunderstorm.
Central West:
Max temperature: 31 to 37, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: easterly 15 to 20 km/h, Wind direction: northeasterly, Rainfall: High chance of showers in the southeast, medium chance elsewhere, Other: Partly cloudy, chance of thunderstorm.
North West:
Max temperature: mid to high 30s, min temperature: mid 20s, wind speed: 15 to 20 km/h east to northeasterly becoming light, rainfall: medium chance of showers, wind direction: east to northeasterly, other: partly cloudy, chance of thunderstorm.
Channel Country:
Max temperature: 33 to 39, Min temperature: Low to mid 20s, Wind speed: 15 to 25 km/h, Wind direction: East to northeasterly, Rainfall: Partly cloudy with medium chance of showers in the east and slight chance elsewhere, Other: Chance of thunderstorm in the evening.
Maranoa and Warrego:
Max temperature: 34, Min temperature: low 20s, Wind speed: northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h becoming light in the evening, Wind direction: northeasterly, Rainfall: Very high chance of showers in the northwest, medium chance elsewhere, Other: Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm, Overnight temperatures falling to the low 20s.
Darling Downs and Granite Belt:
Max temperature: 34, Min temperature: 17, Wind speed: 15-25 km/h, Wind direction: east to northeasterly, Rainfall: Partly cloudy with medium chance of showers in the north and slight chance elsewhere, also chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.
Wide Bay and Burnett:
Max temperature: around 30, Min temperature: 19-22, Wind speed: light becoming easterly 15-20 km/h, Wind direction: easterly, Rainfall: High chance of showers, most likely in the late morning and afternoon, chance of a thunderstorm, Cloudy with light winds in the evening.
Southeast Coast:
Max temperature: 30, Min temperature: 18-22, Wind speed: 15-20 km/h, Wind direction: southeasterly to easterly, Rainfall: partly cloudy with medium chance of showers in the north and slight chance elsewhere.
WEATHER WARNINGS
Strong Wind Warning for Perth Local Waters, Gascoyne, Geraldton, Lancelin, Perth, Bunbury Geographe, and Leeuwin coasts.
Fire Weather Warning for Swan Inland North, Swan Inland South, Geographe, Capes, Brockman, and Blackwood.
Strong Wind Warning for Tuesday for Arafura and Gove Peninsula coasts.
Gale Warning for Western, Southeastern, and Southern Areas.
Gale Warning for Tuesday for Lower East and South East coasts.
Fire Weather Warning for Mid North, Riverland, and Murraylands.
Fire Weather Warning for Mallee, Wimmera, Northern Country, and Central.
Strong Wind Warning Tuesday for Spencer Gulf, South Central, Upper South East, and Lower South East coasts.
Strong Wind Warning for Tuesday for Sydney Enclosed Waters, and Macquarie, Hunter, Sydney, Illawarra, Batemans, and Eden coasts.
Moderate Flood Warning for The Nicholson River.
Major Flood Warning for The Flinders River.
Minor Flood Warning for The Balonne River and Balonne River Minor.
Final Flood Warning for The Bellinger And Kalang Rivers.
Minor Flood Warning for The Barcoo River And Cooper Creek.
Initial Flood Watch for Western Top End Rivers.
Minor Flood Warning for The Lower Warrego River (Queensland).
Minor Flood Warning for The Paroo River (Queensland).
Moderate Flood Warning for The Diamantina River.
Flood Warning for The Inland Rivers in South Australia.
Major Flood Warning for Eyre Creek and Minor Flood Warning for The Georgina River.
Minor Flood Warning for The Paroo River (New South Wales).
Moderate Flood Warning for The Moonie River.
Minor Flood Warning for The Dawson River.
Fire Weather Warning for Capes.
Storms - Heatwave - Fire danger
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National maps by Weatherzone (weatherzone.com.au)
State maps by Windy (Windy.com)
Weather forecast supplemented by Bureau of Meteorology (bom.gov.au)
Rainfall daily totals (https://meteologix.com/ )
AccuWeather (https://www.accuweather.com/)
Nine Weather (https://www.9news.com.au/weather)
Wally's Weather provides professionally researched data and information. Andrew aka 'Wally' has over 20 years of experience in meteorology research and data analysis. In 2023 finished top 4 for the AMOS national weather forecasting competition. The content here is provided as educational information aimed at providing the community and businesses with the tools required to determine local-based forecasts. IMPORTANT: The forecasts and information posted should never be used on their own to make business decisions as local influences.
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