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Welcome to the Long-Range Forecast Update. The Long-Range forecast provides a detailed look at Australia's weather for the coming months. It includes information about major weather patterns that influence rain, temperature, and storms, like La Niña, the Indian Ocean Dipole, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation. It helps predict things like:
The chance of heavy rain or dry spells in different regions
How tropical cyclones might affect parts of Australia
Temperature trends, such as heatwaves or cooler-than-usual conditions
How these patterns will change over time, giving a sense of what to expect throughout the year.
In essence, it gives you an idea of what's likely to happen with weather, storms, and temperatures over the next several months.
January 2025 to July 2025
Contents
Headlines:
La Niña Conditions Develop: Weak La Niña brings cooler temperatures and increased rainfall to eastern and northern Australia, expected to weaken by May 2025.
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) Drops: SOI falls to +7, signaling reduced La Niña influence and shifting weather patterns.
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in Negative Phase: Neutral conditions expected through early 2025, leading to average rainfall and temperatures across Australia.
Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) Shifts: MJO currently in Phase 7, but should be boosting tropical cyclone activity and monsoonal rains in Northern Queensland by mid-January through into February.
Heavy Rainfall Expected in January and February: Monsoon season brings above-average rainfall to northern and eastern Australia, with drier conditions in the west.
Increased Tropical Cyclone Activity: Rising cyclone risk in the Indian Ocean and South Pacific, particularly near Northern Queensland and the Timor Sea.
Temperature Extremes Likely: Early 2025 may see heatwaves in Australia’s interior, with cooler temperatures along the east coast.
Weather Outlook for Mid-Year: Neutral IOD and weakening La Niña expected to bring stability in rainfall and temperatures by mid-2025.
Summary Forecast from following analysis of MJO, SOI and ECMWF
Monsoon Activity
Overall Timing: Monsoon expected on time or slightly early.
Key Dates:
October: MJO entered Solomon Sea around 22nd (Actual: 14th–21st).
December: Strong MJO pulse observed in Region 5 on 14th and Region 6 on 21st.
February: Second strong MJO pulse forecast for Region 4 on 6th and Region 5 on 13th.
Rainfall (ECMWF Model)
December: Heaviest rainfall in NW, Gulf regions, and widespread across WA, NT, and inland NSW.
January: Concentrated rainfall in NW with some impact on the NQ coastline.
February: Heavy rainfall in NW and Coral Sea, with increased monsoonal activity along NQ coastline and peninsula.
March: Heavier rain expands across more of QLD, including NQ tropics.
April: Late-season rainfall focused near Solomon Islands.
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)
December 6: SOI reached its highest level since March 2023.
December 12: Daily SOI peaked, aligning with an 11-day peak-to-peak cycle (Actual peak on Dec 10).
January: Monthly SOI to bottom out Jan 13th
February 23: Monthly SOI expected to peak, aligning with a 2-month peak-to-peak cycle from December.
March: SOI anticipated to dive below zero, signaling a shift in atmospheric conditions.
This forecast highlights significant weather drivers and their expected impacts across Northern Australia, aiding in preparation for monsoonal events and rainfall patterns.
For a 16 day forecast of your location
Temps and Rain for next 16 days
Key indicators
The following is the key data used for forecasting other than daily precipitation and pressure models.
Southern Oscillation Index - see definitions section
Commentary: 5/1 The SOI has dropped to around +7 and is expected to dip further before returning to this range in a few weeks. This shift reflects increased low-pressure activity near Tahiti, driven by a more active monsoon pulse in that region.
What This Means:
Current storm activity isn't producing the same rainfall as earlier unstable conditions, signaling a transition out of La Niña.
The SOI's fluctuations align with atmospheric changes influenced by trade winds and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO).
Sea Surface Temperature and Anomalies
Commentary: 5/1 Temps have cooled in general around Australia, with a few exceptions, NW and SE of the country. The temps around PNG have also reduced but we are seeing that classic La Nina pattern across the equator.
Pacific: Cooler SSTs in the equatorial Pacific support La Niña development.
Indian Ocean: Negative IOD conditions reflect cooler eastern SSTs, influencing tropical convection.
Global: Variability in SST anomalies contributes to tropical cyclone potential and convection patterns.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)
Commentary: 05/1 The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) currently has minimal influence on Australia's climate.
Current Status: Negative IOD conditions are present, with cooler sea temperatures in the eastern Indian Ocean. However, neutral conditions are expected through early 2025.
Impact on Australia:
Rainfall:Negative IOD typically boosts rainfall in southern and eastern Australia during winter and spring, but neutral IOD means rainfall will depend more on other factors like ENSO and MJO.Strong negative IOD is unlikely, reducing the chance of above-average rainfall.
Temperature:Neutral IOD brings average temperatures, with fewer extremes. A shift to positive IOD later in the year could lead to drier, warmer conditions.
Tropical Cyclones:The IOD has little impact on cyclones this season, with activity driven by ENSO, MJO, and local sea temperatures.
Seasonal Outlook:
January–May 2025: Neutral IOD suggests weather will follow seasonal averages, with other drivers like La Niña having more impact.
June 2025 Onwards: A potential move toward positive IOD could bring drier, warmer conditions during winter and spring.
The IOD remains a secondary but important factor in Australia’s climate system. Its neutral phase reinforces stability in rainfall and temperature patterns, while the influence of other climate systems like ENSO and MJO takes precedence in shaping the weather outlook for 2025.
Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR)
Commentary: 5/1 By analyzing two key weather patterns — the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) — we accurately predicted when the monsoon would hit Queensland, pinpointing its arrival on 21st December. Before that, we tracked its progress through the Indian Ocean.
MJO Activity:
Currently in Phase 7 (Western Pacific), with active convection shifting towards the eastern Pacific and the tropical Americas.
Expected to impact the Indian Ocean around mid-January 2025, potentially altering tropical weather patterns.
This phase is associated with an increased chance of tropical cyclone formation in the Indian Ocean and South Pacific, particularly near Madagascar and the Timor Sea.
Impact on Australia:
Tropical Cyclones: The MJO's influence is expected to increase tropical cyclone activity in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean, which can potentially affect Australia's tropical regions.
Rainfall and Temperature: The MJO's interaction with other climate drivers like La Niña and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) means variability in rainfall and temperatures, with above-normal temperatures and potential heatwaves forecast for parts of Australia's interior in weeks 2 and 3 of January 2025.
Cyclogenesis: The MJO's activity supports tropical cyclone development in areas like the Bay of Bengal and the South Pacific. As the MJO shifts into the Indian Ocean mid-January, tropical cyclone formation could increase near Australia's northern and northwestern coasts.
Key Forecast Summary for Australia:
Mid-January 2025: MJO activity will shift towards the Indian Ocean, supporting the potential for tropical cyclones and influencing rainfall patterns across northern and eastern Australia.
Potential Heatwaves: Some regions, especially in interior Australia, may experience temperatures above 105°F in early January.
Uncertainty: While the MJO is supporting cyclone activity, there remains some uncertainty about its exact effects on rainfall, with the MJO potentially leading to changes in the monsoon and tropical weather conditions.
The MJO is expected to be in Region 4 by 6th February, and then reach Region 5 around 13th February.
This timing aligns with the monsoon pulse making its way to the Queensland region, particularly the North Queensland (NQ) coast and Peninsula areas.
Expected Impacts:
By February, you can expect enhanced monsoonal activity across Northern Queensland, with increased rainfall and possibly tropical cyclone formation.
The monsoon's stronger pulse in February could bring more widespread wet conditions, especially along the coastline and the tropical north.
So, to sum it up: February is the key time for the monsoon pulse to reach Queensland, bringing wet conditions, storms, and an increased chance of tropical cyclones in the NQ region.
Southern Annular Mode (SAM)
Commentary: 1/5 : Negative IOD observed, with cooler eastern Indian Ocean influencing tropical convection.
Influence: Not directly mentioned but likely interacting with low-frequency variability over the Southern Hemisphere.
Impact on Australia: Potential for heatwaves and high temperatures across interior regions, with implications for precipitation and tropical cyclone activity.
Impact on Regions of Australia:
Northern Australia:
Early 2025: Neutral IOD conditions mean average rainfall and minimal impact on tropical cyclone activity. Cyclone activity will depend on other drivers like the MJO and SSTs.
Mid-to-Late 2025: If a positive IOD develops, it could reduce rainfall and increase the risk of drier conditions later in the year.
Eastern Australia (Including Queensland):
Early 2025: Neutral IOD supports typical rainfall patterns without significant extremes.
Later in 2025: A potential positive IOD could bring drier conditions during winter and spring, reducing the likelihood of above-average rainfall.
Southern Australia:
Early 2025: Stable conditions with rainfall near average due to neutral IOD.
Later in 2025: A slight chance of positive IOD developing could result in drier and warmer winter/spring conditions, particularly affecting agricultural regions.
Western Australia:
Early 2025: Neutral IOD maintains typical weather patterns, with no strong wet or dry anomalies.
Later in 2025: Positive IOD, if it emerges, may reduce rainfall in southern and western areas during the cooler months.
7 Month Rainfall Anomaly Forecast (ECMWF)
Summary:
January: Monsoonal from the NW to North of WA. Those systems aren't expected to cross the coast 'and make their traditional exist Central WA into SA and Victoria. Some smaller developments near the Gulf, likely the outer rotation of monsoonal activity or the monsoon trough. Same goes for the NQ coast. Storm activity for NSW and heavier rainfall for most of NSW.
February: Shows the heaviest rainfall, even heavier than December as the monsoon pulse number 2 settles and likely drops over mainland Australia. This looks to create several convergences along the coastline as far down as Yeppoon. Activity also in the Coral Sea, but mainly further North East. Monsoonal development in the Gulf, but also likely from monsoon trough sitting across it. Perhaps one system in the West making it through Central to South WA and into the Southern Ocean. More storm activity for NSW with some extreme rainfall over Central North NSW. Also wetter conditions for SA, Victoria and NE parts of Tasmania.
March: Easing back a lot and residual systems to the East of the Coral Sea as well as residual systems or weaker new systems in the Indian Ocean. This does not align with the pulse but the waters are warm. Wetter than normal for SA, Vic and Northern parts of the NT.
April: Residual systems such as weak lows in the Indian Ocean, Gulf, Coral Sea close to the Peninsula, likely from systems from Solomon Islands making their way towards the Peninsula. Looks like the Sub tropical ridge (Ridgy) might be back in action with East Coast Lows and Ridging across the NSW coast.
May: Wetter for WA, NT amd SA and drier for the Eastern side of the Eastern states QLD, NSW, Victoria and Tasmania.
June: Wetter for WA and Normal for SA and NT, drier for the Central to North Eastern states NSW and QLD.
July: Wetter along the Southern states plus Southern WA and normal above that.
ENSO Forecast
1/5 Current ENSO Conditions:
La Niña conditions are developing in the equatorial Pacific. This means cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central and eastern Pacific.
Niño3.4 index for January 2025 is expected to be -0.9°C, indicating weak La Niña conditions. These conditions are likely to persist through early 2025, but gradually weaken by May.
Impact on Australian Climate:
Rainfall: La Niña typically enhances rainfall in eastern and northern Australia, with the potential for wetter-than-average conditions in places like Queensland and New South Wales. However, the intensity may vary due to competing factors like the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions.
Tropical Cyclones: The developing La Niña could contribute to increased tropical cyclone activity in the Indian Ocean and South Pacific, especially during the first half of 2025. Regions like Northern Queensland and the Timor Sea could see higher cyclone potential as the MJO returns to the Indian Ocean in mid-January.
Temperature: With La Niña's influence, cooler-than-normal temperatures are expected along eastern Australia in the short term, but above-average heat is possible in the interior during week-2 of the forecast (early February).
Niño3.4 Probabilities (January - May 2025):
January: 57.6% chance of below -0.8°C (La Niña), contributing to cooler and wetter conditions across eastern and northern Australia.
February: The probability of La Niña (below -0.8°C) drops to 22.2%, with a 77.8% chance of neutral conditions, signaling a shift to more typical seasonal patterns.
By March-May, neutral conditions become more dominant, with probabilities nearing 90% or higher.
Key Forecast Impacts on Regions:
Northern Queensland: Expect above-normal rainfall during the monsoon season, especially with the MJO pulse crossing into the Indian Ocean in mid-January, which will contribute to increased tropical cyclone potential.
Southern Australia: The La Niña conditions may bring wetter-than-average conditions to the eastern parts (NSW, VIC), while the interior may experience hotter-than-normal temperatures in early February.
La Niña Development:
The text explicitly refers to "developing La Niña conditions over the equatorial Pacific," confirming that this is the dominant ENSO phase.
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI):
While the SOI itself is not explicitly mentioned in the text, La Niña is associated with positive SOI values, which indicate higher pressure over Tahiti and lower pressure over Darwin. This pressure gradient strengthens the trade winds, a key factor mentioned in the text as "enhanced trade wind regime over the equatorial Pacific."
Trade Winds:
The text highlights stronger trade winds as a feature of the current conditions: "enhanced trade wind regime over the equatorial Pacific." These stronger winds push warm water westward, a hallmark of La Niña, and lead to cooler sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific.
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs):
Although specific SST values are not detailed, the mention of La Niña implies cooler SSTs in the eastern Pacific, consistent with the phase.
Rainfall Patterns and Tropical Cyclone Activity:
Increased tropical cyclone activity in the Indian Ocean and South Pacific, combined with wetter conditions for parts of Australia, aligns with La Niña, which shifts the Walker Circulation westward.
Negative Indian Ocean Dipole (-IOD):
The -IOD amplifies La Niña's impacts by contributing to wetter conditions over northern and eastern Australia through warmer SSTs near Australia and increased atmospheric moisture.
Global Tropical Hazards
This is new to the long range but has been around for a while. It shows the potential for rain and tropical activity. The Red stripped showing the tropical activity region and the green the rainfall.
Rainfall Locations for Australia
Interior Australia: Excessive heat and above-normal temperatures may dominate, with limited rainfall expected.
Timor Sea (North of Australia): Potential for tropical cyclone development during Week 3, which could influence rainfall patterns nearby.
Tropical Cyclone Activity for Australia
Timor Sea (North of Australia): Increased likelihood of tropical cyclone development in mid-to-late January.
South Pacific: Elevated potential for tropical cyclone activity east of Australia from 170°E to 160°W during Week 2, though decreasing chances after mid-January.
Key indicator Definitions
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is the measure of the difference of low pressure between Darwin and Tahiti. It is important because you are able to see regular cycles in the weather. These cycles include when High pressure systems move through and produce trade wind rain up the East coast of Australia and leave, and when low pressure troughs from and produce storms.
Sea Surface Temperatures
The Sea Surface Temperatures are a guide to where cloud gathers and thus rainfall. Climate indicators such as La Nina, El Nino and Indian Ocean Dipole are calculated based on this and the SOI. The temperatures also determine if the water is warm enough to produce cyclones.
Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
Where the sea surface temperatures are averaging out of the normal range. Blue when colder than normal, yellow to red when warmer than normal, white when normal.
Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)
The MJO is a chart that essentially says where the most cloud is around the equator. This cloud is produced by aa low-pressure trough called the Monsoon Trough. This trough sits along the equator during the monsoon season, and shifts South, producing tropical low and cyclones. This is called the monsoon pulse. The first pulse is like a wake up, not much to see, because the trough won't shift South much. Normally the first pulse to produce cycles in after November. For the NT and QLD it tends to be December into January.
The chart is divided into phases 1 through 8. For WA phase 4 and 5 are relevant, for the NT 5 and 6, for QLD 6 and 7, and Fiji 7 and 8. The pulse moves anti-clockwise around the equator and takes between 30 to 60 days to make it's way around the equator. We tend to see around 3 monsoon pulses each wet season in Australia. This ends around March or April but can go on longer.
Outgoing Longwave Radiation OLR
OLR and the Map: OLR stands for "Outgoing Longwave Radiation." It's a way to measure how much energy is being radiated from the Earth back into space. The graphs show this measurement for different parts of a specific region called the Darwin RSMC area.
Dashed Line and Normal Conditions: Think of it as the average or "normal" value.
Coloured Curve and Moving Average: This line moves up and down, showing how current conditions compare to the "normal" value.
Below Normal OLR (Blue Shading): This typically happens when it's cloudier than normal because clouds block some of the radiation.
Above Normal OLR (Yellow Shading): This usually indicates clearer skies, as fewer clouds are blocking the radiation.
El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
The oscillation between El Niño and La Niña states in the Pacific region. El Niño typically produces drier seasons, and La Niña drives wetter years, but the influence of each event varies, particularly in conjunction with other climate influences. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gy37fGiRO5Q
The impact of El Nino. Let's point out a few facts:
El Nino impacts the nation differently in different locations, and no El Nino is the same. So while the expectation is drier than usual, there is nothing to say one location might be normal or wetter than normal.
El Nino if it is to be an intense system will be fairly consistent early, and temps and dry gradually work it's way to a peak within a year. That doesn't mean it will get hot and dry as soon as it is called.
El Nino if it is weak will struggle in the first year to consistently produce dry hot conditions across the nation, and most likely in a few regions. Then there maybe a lull and then it should intensity, this the peak might be 18month to 24 month away from being called.
El Nino for Australia (not the world as many assume) requires any three of the following criteria need to be satisfied:
Sea surface temperature: Temperatures in the NINO3 or NINO3.4 regions of the Pacific Ocean are 0.8 °C warmer than average.
Winds: Trade winds have been weaker than average in the western or central equatorial Pacific Ocean during any three of the last four months.
SOI: The three-month average Southern Oscillation Index is –7 or lower.
Models: A majority of surveyed climate models show sustained warming to at least 0.8 °C above average in the NINO3 or NINO3.4 regions of the Pacific until the end of the year.
Nino 3.4
El Niño (La Niña) is a phenomenon in the equatorial Pacific Ocean characterized by a five consecutive 3-month running mean of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region that is above (below) the threshold of +0.5°C (-0.5°C). This standard of measure is known as the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI).
Historically, scientists have classified the intensity of El Niño based on SST anomalies exceeding a pre-selected threshold in a certain region of the equatorial Pacific. The most commonly used region is the Niño 3.4 region, and the most commonly used threshold is a positive SST departure from normal greater than or equal to +0.5°C.
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)
A climate pattern affecting the Indian Ocean. During a positive phase, warm waters are pushed to the Western part of the Indian Ocean, while cold deep waters are brought up to the surface in the Eastern Indian Ocean. This pattern is reversed during the negative phase of the IOD.
Southern Annular Mode (SAM)
A climate driver that can influence rainfall and temperature in Australia. The SAM refers to the (non-seasonal) north-south movement of the strong westerly winds that blow almost continuously in the mid- to high-latitudes of the southern hemisphere.
Positive phase:
band of westerly winds contracts toward Antarctica
higher pressures over southern Australia
can relate to stable, dry conditions.
Negative phase:
band of westerly winds expands towards the equator
more (or stronger) low pressure systems over southern Australia
can mean increased storms and rain.
Sub-tropical Ridge
The position of the sub-tropical ridge plays an important part in the way the weather in Australia varies from season to season.
During the warmer half of the year in southern Australia (November to April), the sub-tropical ridge is generally located to the south of the continent. High pressure systems (also called anticyclones), which are associated with stable and dry conditions, generally move eastwards along the ridge.
In autumn the sub-tropical ridge moves northward and remains over the Australian continent for most of the colder half of the year in southern Australia (May to October). Conditions along the ridge, under the influence of the high pressure systems dry and descending air, tend to be stable and drier. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mqHbpgzBQLA
Solar Activity
Sunspot Forecast - SILSO (Left)
The following shows a rise from two separate models, one more delayed than the other. The increase tends to mean an increasing effect on rainfall. Selvaraj et al. (2009). However in other studies it has found the opposite. Rind et al. 2008; Svensmark et al. (2013). We are in solar cycle 25. Over time I will be constructing an application to record the information, and correlate against events. This can be used to identify how reliable this information is for forecasting weather.
Sunspot activity - EISN (Right)
The Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) is a daily value calculated by averaging the sunspot counts from various observatories in the SILSO network. This calculation is based on the observations received within the current month. The "Nb Data" represents the total number of observations received, while "Valid Data" is the number of observations considered for the EISN calculation. The "Current average" indicates the ongoing average of the Sunspot Number. In summary, EISN refers to the Estimated International Sunspot Number, providing a daily assessment based on collected sunspot observations.
SILSO - EISN
Commentary:
The Phase of the Solar Cycle
The Sun's activity goes through cycles, and while the average cycle is said to be around 11 years, individual cycles can be as short as 9 years or as long as 14 years. There are times when the cycles consistently fall below 11 years and other times when they go beyond 11 years. The graph illustrates when solar activity is at its minimum, comparing it to the average 11-year cycle. Before the 4th cycle (starting in 1784), cycles tended to be shorter, and from then until the 15th cycle (starting in 1913), they were mostly longer. Since then, cycles have generally been shorter than 11 years.
The Sun's energy output, which influences Earth's temperature, fluctuates in a cycle linked to sunspots. Sunspots are cooler areas on the Sun's surface that appear in cycles, roughly every 11 years, affecting solar irradiance (the Sun’s energy reaching Earth). During periods of high sunspot activity (solar maximum), the Sun's total energy output increases slightly, which can lead to a small rise in Earth’s temperature, while periods of low sunspot activity (solar minimum) result in slightly cooler temperatures. However, these changes are relatively small and cyclical, with the most noticeable effects felt during extended periods of very high or low sunspot activity. https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/impacts/space-weather-impacts-climate
A chart showing how often really big hurricanes happen around the world over a three-year period was made by Ryan Maue. He just counted them up and drew a line graph. Then, he shared this graph on Twitter. When someone else looked at it, they thought it seemed similar to a chart showing sunspots but in reverse. So, they added another line to the graph representing the monthly count of sunspots. In the picture, the blue line is Maue's hurricane plot, and the orange line is the sunspot plot. It's pretty clear that they are inversely related, meaning when one goes up, the other goes down, and vice versa. This connection is quite interesting.
For people wanting a practical method of forecasting the weather, a statement by the eminent Australian meteorologist Barrie Pittock should be borne in mind:
"there is at present little or no convincing evidence of statistically significant or practically useful correlations between sunspot cycles and weather or climate on intermediate time scales. This conclusion seems justified despite massive literature on the subject ... evidence suggests that if ... more data and better analyses ... succeed in verifying ... significant relationships, they will ... account for so little of the total variance in the meteorological record as to be of little practical value."
There is evidence of some very small short term effects (within days) and also some long term climatic effects (of the order of centuries). However, none of these offer much hope to the weather forecaster.
Notes to help you read the Long-Range:
Monsoon pulse has 3 regions, West, North East, give or take 4 days as MJO can range 30 to 60 days.
Blocking Low is where a High is prevented from entering the Tasman Sea
Blocking High is where a low in the tropics is prevented from moving
Trade winds East Coast is where a High pushes airflow North along the East Coast of Australia and produces showers to exposed regions, in particular FNQ and Whitsundays
References
IRI Climatologies https://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/Global/Climatologies/MJO_SPH.html
SST Anomaly https://psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.anom.anim.html
Meteologix https://meteologix.com/au/46days-weather-forecast
Weatherzone weatherzone.com.au
Solar influences https://www.sidc.be/SILSO
BOM Solar https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Solar/1/5
Sunspots and Huricanes https://wattsupwiththat.com/2024/01/25/hurricane-frequency-and-sunspots/
NOAA https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/impacts/space-weather-impacts-climate
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