Common question that is being asked. The media would have you think there will be no rain. The difference is not that there is rain during La Nina and no rain during El Nino. It means less chance of rain and when it does, less of it.
In 2015, the first year was dry, but many areas same as average. So low pressure systems formed, cyclones formed, rain fell.
However the question is where will it fall. And that is the million dollar question which nobody can really forecast. We cannot crunch the numbers to calculate every movement of every molecule.
So the answer is, we will see low pressure systems fall, but they will hold less rain. When the trade winds blow, there will be less rain. But that is likely to be more obvious in the second year.
So for the tropics we will watch out for the monsoon trough when it shifts south over the top end. This tends to move the most South from Jan to April. When it moves south, rain moves with it, and often tropical lows are formed along it. But where is the question. When a cyclone forms, the rain contracts and is spread over less area. So a low is better for rainfall than a cyclone as far as spread goes. Watch the long range forecast for when we expect the monsoon trough to move South.
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