December monsoon pulse.

The following diagram shows you the phase number for where the monsoon is most active. The blue is the most active.

Jasper started in phase 4. So where is the monsoon most active now? Well the monsoon moves roughly east in cycles. So it should be most active around Fiji now based on the MJO chart which has the blue line currently just in phase 7 moving into phase 8.

And while people are still asking if Jasper will come back to life, let's see what the GFS says about phase 7 to 8 in a week's time.

So we should probably expect the next monsoon pulse for the East around the first week of Feb. However it is likely we could see another system starting near where Jasper did, perhaps more SW in the last week of Jan.