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Daily Forecast - May 15 - Wally's Weather Australia

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La Nina Watch called:

  • La Niña Watch: Signs indicate potential formation later in 2024.

  • ENSO Outlook: Currently neutral, with early signs of possible La Niña.

  • Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): Currently neutral, with recent development possibly stalled.

  • Global Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs): Warmest on record, affecting typical ENSO and IOD patterns.

  • Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO): Currently neutral, with forecasts suggesting continuation or weak activity.

National


Tasmania will experience a short-lived gust of wind and showers as a front approaches. Isolated showers along the east coast will occur due to onshore winds. Inland Western Australia can expect showers and a few thunderstorms. A high-pressure system will usher in a calm and chilly morning, with a predominantly dry day expected in South Australia, Victoria, and western New South Wales. Elsewhere, conditions will also remain generally dry under the influence of the high-pressure system.

Synoptic | Temp/Rain | Wind | Sea Surface Temp

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4 Day Forecast

  • Wednesday: Isolated showers east coast and Torres Strait, scattered North Tropical Coast and Tablelands, widespread Ingham to Innisfail and Daintree. Mostly clear in far west and central inland, partly cloudy elsewhere. Light to moderate easterly/southeasterly winds, fresh at times north of Mackay, light to moderate south/southeasterly winds in southeast.

  • Thursday: Isolated showers in the east and south, scattered showers elsewhere. Cloud increasing in southwest with chance of thunderstorms. Fresh winds in the northeast. Above-average overnight temps, near-average daytime temps.

  • Friday: Scattered showers in the east and north, isolated in the southwest with possible thunderstorms. Partly cloudy elsewhere. Above-average overnight temperatures, near-average maximum temperatures.

  • Saturday: East coast showers and Torres Strait. Scattered showers South East Queensland and North Tropical Coast. Mostly sunny west and interior Queensland. Fresh southeasterly winds east coast. Mild overnight temps. Max temps near average, slightly below in southwest..


National Warnings

  • Strong Wind Warning issued for East Gippsland Coast in Victoria.

  • Gale Warning canceled for Western Area in NSW/ACT.

  • Strong Wind Warning issued for Eden Coast in NSW/ACT.

  • Strong Wind Warning issued for South East, South West, and Central West coasts in Tasmania; Lower East Coast warning canceled.

  • Strong Wind Warning issued for Peninsula, Cooktown, Townsville, and Mackay coasts in Queensland.

  • Storm Force Wind Warning issued for Western, Southern, and Southeastern Areas in NSW/ACT.

  • Final Flood Warning issued for The St Georges Basin in NSW/ACT.

  • Gale Warning canceled for Southern Area in NSW/ACT.

  • Final Gale Warning issued for Southern Area in NSW/ACT.

  • Minor Flood Warning issued for The Warrego River (NSW) in NSW/ACT.

  • Minor Flood Warning issued for Eyre Creek in Queensland.

  • Final Flood Warning issued for The Hawkesbury River in NSW/ACT.


Storms | Extreme Weather | Fire

State

Large high pressure system moving east over southern Australia will bring showers to Queensland, followed by a trough with more showers and isolated thunderstorms in western Queensland, clearing by the weekend. New high south of the Bight will cool much of the state.

ACCESS (Values are rainfall over 3 hours)

State Region Round-up


North Tropical Coast and Tablelands:

Max temperature: 28°C, Min temperature: 17°C, Wind speed: 20-30 km/h, Wind direction: East to southeasterly, Rainfall: Showers near coast, Cloud cover: Cloudy.

Herbert and Lower Burdekin:

The weather will be partly cloudy with temperatures ranging from 24 to 30 degrees, light winds becoming easterly, and a medium chance of showers in the north and a slight chance elsewhere, with overnight temperatures dropping to 17-20 degrees.

Central Coast and Whitsundays:

Max temperature mid to high 20s, min temperature between 14 to 19, wind speed 20 to 30 km/h easterly to southeasterly, slight chance of showers along the coast, partly cloudy.

Peninsula:

Max temperature around 30, with low to mid 20s overnight, easterly to southeasterly winds of 20 to 30 km/h, partly cloudy with medium chance of showers north of Coen in late morning and afternoon, near zero chance of rain elsewhere.

Gulf Country:

The weather forecast includes maximum temperatures in the low to mid 30s, minimum temperatures between 18 and 23, wind speeds starting light and becoming easterly at 15 to 20 km/h turning light later, and the likelihood of sunny conditions with no rainfall mentioned.

Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders:

The weather will be partly cloudy with easterly winds at 20 to 30 km/h, with a minimum temperature of 15, maximum temperature of 33, and a chance of rain.

Capricornia:

Max temperature: mid to high 20s, Min temperature: 12-17, Wind: Light becoming east to southeasterly 15-25 km/h, Rainfall: Slight chance of a shower near the coast, near zero elsewhere, Other: Partly cloudy.

Central Highlands and Coalfields:

Max temperature of 30, min temperature of 9, wind speed of 15-25 km/h becoming light, wind direction east to southeasterly, no rainfall, and partly cloudy conditions.

Central West:

Mostly sunny with daytime temperatures reaching 26 to 31, overnight temperatures falling to between 11 and 16, easterly winds 15 to 25 km/h becoming light in the evening, and no rainfall expected.

North West:

Today will be a mostly sunny day with daytime temperatures reaching the low 30s, overnight temperatures falling to between 14 and 19, winds southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light early in the morning then becoming east to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h in the morning.

Channel Country:

Max temperature: 30°C, Min temperature: 13°C, Wind speed: 15-25 km/h (east to southeasterly), Wind direction: East to southeasterly, Rainfall: None, Conditions: Mostly sunny

Maranoa and Warrego:

Max temperature will be in the mid 20s, minimum temperature will be between 9 and 12, wind speed will become easterly at 15 to 20 km/h in the morning, wind direction will become light in the late afternoon, there is no mention of rainfall, and it will be mostly sunny with temperatures decreasing overnight.

Darling Downs and Granite Belt:

Max temperature in the low to mid 20s, min temperature around 10, light winds becoming easterly 15-20 km/h, partly cloudy with chance of fog in far east early morning, and overnight temperatures around 10.

Wide Bay and Burnett:

Expected weather conditions: Max temperature in the low to mid 20s, min temperature between 11 and 17, light winds becoming east to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h, slight chance of a shower, mainly along the coast, partly cloudy skies.

Southeast Coast:

Max temperature: Low to mid 20s; Min temperature: 11 to 16; Wind speed: Light winds becoming southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h; Wind direction: Southeasterly; Rainfall: Medium chance of showers near the coast, slight elsewhere; Other: Partly cloudy with chance of fog in the morning at southern border.


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National maps by Weatherzone (weatherzone.com.au)

State maps by Windy (Windy.com)

Weather forecast supplemented by Bureau of Meteorology (bom.gov.au)

Rainfall daily totals (https://meteologix.com/ )


Wally's Weather provides professionally researched data and information. Andrew aka 'Wally' has over 20 years of experience in meteorology research and data analysis. In 2023 finished top 4 for the AMOS national weather forecasting competition. The content here is provided as educational information aimed at providing the community and businesses with the tools required to determine local-based forecasts. IMPORTANT: The forecasts and information posted should never be used on their own to make business decisions as local influences.


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