So the Tropical Tidbits tend to be faster off the mark with the info on new systems than JTWC. However, I don't tend to concern myself with the Tropical Tidbit spaghetti models.
25.1.24
Wind gusts of 143km/h approaching Cat 3 speeds on the reef.
270km out from Townsville and closing in on the reef still. The eye has opened and Kirrily is a cat 2 system now.
Approaching the reef, and this will test my theory on the reef, just a theory not a prediction.
The tropical cyclone named Kirrily is currently near the coordinates 18.0°S 149.5°E, which is about 454 kilometers east-southeast of Cairns, Australia. It has been moving in a west-southwest direction at a speed of 13 kilometers per hour over the last six hours. The minimum central pressure of the cyclone at 24th January 2018, 0400AEST is 993 hPa, and the highest significant wave height at the same time is 20 feet.
Tropical Cyclone Kirrily
Issued at 5:01 am AEST Thursday 25 January 2024. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 19.
To give some perspective the 6 hour radar and satellite runs are shown. Midnight to 6am. It's built and formed shape and inte sits still category 1.
24.1.24
After another failed attempt to build over night there was doubt as to what the Low would do. However today it has built in the afternoon and looks back on track.
LOCATION: Near 17.4S 152.6E.
DATE: January 24, 2024.
TIME: 02:00 AM AEST.
A tropical cyclone, named 07P (Seven), is currently positioned approximately 414 kilometers east of Cairns, Australia. It has been moving westward at a speed of 3 knots over the past six hours. The minimum central pressure recorded at 24th January 2024, 02:00 AM AEST, is 994 hPa (millibars). The maximum significant wave height at the same time is 18 feet.
Tropical Low
Issued at 1:54 pm AEST Wednesday 24 January 2024. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 14.
Areas affected:
Warning zone: Lucinda to Sarina, including Townsville, Mackay, Bowen and the Whitsunday Islands .
Watch zone: Innisfail to Lucinda, and extending inland to Charters Towers .
Cancelled zones: None.
Details of Tropical Low at 1:00 pm AEST:
Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 75 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 45 kilometres of 17.2 degrees South, 152.6 degrees East , 660 kilometres east northeast of Townsville and 570 kilometres northeast of Mackay .
Movement: slow moving .
A tropical low (05U) is developing slowly in the central Coral Sea and is expected to become a tropical cyclone tonight as it tracks west southwest towards the Queensland coast. The system is likely to cross the Queensland coast Thursday night between Cardwell and Bowen as a Category 2 system.
In the longer term, the system is likely to track further inland as a tropical low, bringing heavy to intense rain to parts of the northern interior and western Queensland.
Hazards:
GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are likely to develop about the Whitsunday Islands tonight and extend to mainland communities between Ayr and Sarina during Thursday morning. GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are expected to extend northward to coastal and island communities between Ayr and Lucinda, including Townsville during Thursday.
GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 90 km/h may extend further north between Lucinda and Innisfail if the system tracks further to the north late Thursday, and inland to Charters Towers overnight Thursday night or on Friday.
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 140 km/h may develop about coastal and island communities between Cardwell and Proserpine including Townsville and the Whitsunday Islands later Thursday.
HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is likely to develop about coastal areas between Innisfail and Sarina from early Thursday before spreading to inland areas later during Thursday and continuing during Friday. INTENSE RAINFALL which may lead to DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING is possible near the track of the system, most likely with the coastal crossing during Thursday and Friday. A flood watch is also current for these areas.
During Friday, the system is expected to become a tropical low and HEAVY RAINFALL may develop across the northern interior and western Queensland into the weekend as the system tracks inland.
As the system approaches and crosses the coast, a STORM TIDE is expected between Townsville and Mackay. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.
INITIAL POSITION: 17.3S 153.0E
DATE: January 24, 2024.
TIME: 02:00 AM AEST.
A tropical disturbance is located at an initial position of 17.3S 153.0E, approximately 414 kilometers east of Cairns, Australia. It is moving westward at a speed of 03 knots over the past six hours.
CURRENT CONDITIONS:
INTENSITY: The system currently has an intensity of 40 knots.
WAVE HEIGHT: The significant wave height is measured at 18 feet.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS:
Animated multispectral satellite imagery (MSI) shows limited, fragmented deep convection mostly concentrated in the northern and western areas of a broad circulation with multiple embedded low-level mesovortices.
CONFIDENCE LEVELS:
POSITION: Low confidence, based on recent satellite fixes and a partial SSMIS microwave sensor pass.
INTENSITY: Medium confidence, assessed slightly above a consensus of subjective DVORAK and automated intensity estimates.
DEVELOPMENTAL OBSERVATIONS:
Although convection remains disorganized and coverage has decreased, an expanding cirrus shield indicates an improvement in outflow, particularly to the west. The dissipation of a weak upper-level low that previously inhibited development is also noted.
23.1.24
To a rookie rhe system looks like it has died but the rain and cloud have been shed and it's spinning now. Another 24 hours to cyclone likely. Area circled is showing spin. Even though the cloud on satellite and rain on radar appears to have moved south.
The area of stormy weather called Invest 90P was previously near 15.4S 154.2E and is now near 16.2S 154.1E, approximately 431 kilometers east of Willis Island. This storm is slowly getting stronger, but the storm clouds are scattered and displaced on one side. In the past twelve hours, the storm clouds have come and gone without getting much deeper, even though it's the time of day when storms usually get stronger. Recent satellite images show strong winds on the western side of the storm starting to move towards the side with more storm clouds, but it will take a few more hours. The satellite images also show that there is still not much deep heavy rain around the storm. A satellite picture from 22:11 UTC confirms that there are not strong winds on one side of the storm, but the other side was missed. A measurement called ABRF shows that the storm's wind strength is at 2.0. The conditions in the area around the storm are good for it to get stronger, with winds moving away from the center in the upper atmosphere, light wind blowing up and down, and warm water temperatures. Different weather models agree that the storm will continue to move southwest and get stronger, becoming a tropical storm in the next twelve hours. The strongest winds in the storm are currently estimated to be between 28 and 33 knots (about 51 to 61 kilometers per hour). The pressure at sea level in the center of the storm is estimated to be about 997 hectopascals. There is a high chance that this storm will become a significant tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours.
22.1.24
People wondering if it's dead, it's just shed it's winter coat and ready to wind up. This is normal for the cold air from the SE to degrade one side. Tomorrow we should see late development. Would not be surprised if we went into Friday with this as its showing slow development. Also would not be surprised if it did a Dylan or Debbie and the reef guided it
BOM
Details of Tropical Low at 4:00 pm AEST:
Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.Location: within 55 kilometres of 15.6 degrees South, 153.9 degrees East , 860 kilometres east northeast of Townsville and 425 kilometres east of Willis Island .Movement: slow moving .
A tropical low (05U) is slow moving in the central Coral Sea and is likely to become a tropical cyclone during late Tuesday. This system is forecast to track southwest over the next few days towards the Queensland coast as it intensifies.The system is forecast to cross the coast, most likely on Thursday between Innisfail and Airlie Beach. From Friday, the system is forecast to move inland and then further south.
21.1.24
Some people mixing up the two clouds for two lows. We normally see 3 clouds around a low before it spins into a cyclone. This time one is not that strong.
Some comments from this mornings round up, it appears after yesterdays volatile model forecasts that today they seem to be playing better together and we have what appears to be a clear sign that the low once it becomes a cyclone will come close to the coast around Townsville. We have seen this before, and they have diverted South to between Bowen and Whitsundays. There was a very famous eating hat incident where I said that there was no way it would cross over Townsville and I would eat my hat. However this is a different set of circumstances and we have to prepare.
Currently the feed is mainly from the West, the North and NE are struggling due to troughs around it. That should change over the next few days and we see it intensify quickly at one point possibly Wednesday.
20.1.24
Some convection or cloud generated at the center but still very messy. The BOM and JTWC still waiting on more clarity I think.
A weather disturbance, known as INVEST 90P, was previously located near 14.4S 156.1E but has now moved to approximately 692 kilometers east-northeast of Willis Island. Satellite images show developing spiral bands wrapping around a well-defined center. The upper-level conditions are somewhat favorable, with weak air movement aloft and warm sea temperatures, but there's also strong vertical wind shear. Global models predict that 90P will keep moving southwest and strengthen in the next 24-36 hours. The maximum sustained winds are around 27 to 33 knots, and the minimum pressure is about 996 hPa. There is a high chance that it may develop into a significant tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours.
Tropical Low 05U
Likely tropical cyclone impact on the Queensland coast from mid next week.
A tropical low (05U) is developing in the Coral Sea, well away from the Queensland coast.
The tropical low will strengthen over the weekend, and is likely to become a tropical cyclone by Monday.
The tropical low is currently slow moving. It is forecast to begin to move to the southwest on Sunday, towards the Queensland coast.
A coastal impact on Queensland is now considered more likely than not, but there still remains some uncertainty in the movement of the system. It may still remain off of the coast in the Coral Sea, though this has become less likely.
The most likely zone for a coastal crossing is between about Cooktown and Mackay, somewhat more likely south of Cairns.
A severe impact remains possible, particularly if the system crosses south of Cairns.
If the cyclone were to cross the coast, it is then expected to weaken to a tropical low and move further south over land. This would bring heavy rainfall to areas well south of the crossing zone late in the week or over the weekend.
Communities on the east coast of Queensland are advised to stay up to date with forecasts and warnings.
Last updated
3 hours ago, 06:36 pm AEST
19.1.24
If I had to guess I would say the Monsoon pulse has skipped phase 5 and started on 6.
A quick check and yes, but look at the distance from the center. But still only in phase 4, this is 2 days old tho. What that means is we are in for something big.
The cloud is much more prominent in phase 6.
The western feed is poor, Northern feed is good and so is the NE feed. That means it's about to build quickly and could see a severe tropical system build early. And the JTWC have changed their rating to orange. Tropical cyclone development likely but not within 24 hours.
The convective area (Invest 90P) that was previously located near 14.5S 154.8E is now near 14.2S 157.0E, approximately 1,250 kilometers east-northeast of Cairns, Australia. Satellite imagery and a microwave image show a strengthening low-level circulation center with bands forming around it. The environment is somewhat favorable for development with good wind patterns and warm sea temperatures. Global models predict that 90P will slowly move southwestward and continue to develop over the next 24-48 hours. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 25 to 30 knots (46-56 kilometers per hour). The minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be around 999 millibars (999 hPa). There is a medium chance of a significant tropical cyclone forming within the next 24 hours.
18.1.24
The monsoon pulse has shifted over the WA coastline now, and we are about to see the monsoon trough ramp up over the QLD coast. All timing now, but will 90P take advantage of the pulse.
The weather system, INVEST 90P, was previously near 15.2S 152.4E and has now moved to approximately 14.5S 154.8E, about 1015 kilometers east-northeast of Cairns, Australia. Animated satellite images show a fully exposed low-level circulation center with intense thunderstorms in the northern part. The current environment is not very favorable for development, with weak upper-level outflow, moderate vertical wind shear (15-20 knots), and dry air. Global models predict that 90P will move northeast over the next 48 hours while gradually strengthening. It currently has sustained winds of 15 to 20 knots and a minimum sea level pressure around 998 hPa. The likelihood of it becoming a significant tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours is considered low.
This made me laugh a little. I reckon they have a smaller search window for MH370.
The monsoon trough travelled South to Hinchenbrook and may generate rain over Townsville later tonight. Humidity went through the roof.
As of 06:00 UTC Jan 18, 2024:
Location: 14.4°S 154.9°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 998 mb
Not a lot if organisation here.
17.1.24
Starting position as a Low is as follows
Invest 90P
As of 00:00 UTC Jan 17, 2024:
Location: 17.1°S 151.9°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 hPa
Satellite video
Weak development but gaining more equatorial air second hand from the low over the NT. This is expected to increase but has other issues such as a High further South than normal, weak as well and ridging weak along the qld coast. Waters are warm though.
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